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Should I ship an Alternate-History Idler?
Idler + Alternate History
Of 25 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×579 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 35 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $898 (exactly $898) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $14,017) |
| Top 5% | $364k (exactly $363,625) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 25 |
| Released games | 56 |
| Announced | 35 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $3.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Idler
- effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Idler; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Economy, Incremental
- Price point
- $3.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Retro, 1990's
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 6,315 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + FarmingStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashFair
- + DrivingFair
- + LootFair
- + FPSFair
- + Turn-Based CombatFair
- + Turn-Based StrategyFair
- + Dynamic NarrationFair
- + Dark FantasyFair
- + CapitalismFair
- + SwordplayFair
Comparable games
Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator 2023 · EA · $1.9M 
再刷一把 PlayAgain 2022 · $1.2M 
Fantasy Map Simulator 2024 · EA · $1.0M 
xiuzhen idle 2025 · $416k 
FACEMINER 2025 · $364k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator | · EA older | $6.99 | 8,904 96% | 267k | $1.9M (exactly $1,867,169) | JoySpark Games |
| | 再刷一把 PlayAgain | older | $8.99 | 4,416 67% | 132k | $1.2M (exactly $1,190,995) | 滑稽工作室 |
| | Fantasy Map Simulator | · EA older | $7.99 | 4,190 89% | 126k | $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) | The Stranger |
| | xiuzhen idle | $5.99 | 2,313 79% | 69k | $416k (exactly $415,646) | 游戏养家工作室 | |
| | FACEMINER | $7.99 | 1,517 90% | 46k | $364k (exactly $363,625) | Wristwork | |
 | Another Try 2 | · EA | $6.99 | 1,000 53% | 30k | $210k (exactly $209,700) | Hoki Wolf Studio |
 | 懒人修仙传2 | · EA older | $7.99 | 873 71% | 26k | $209k (exactly $209,258) | 托更的修罗 |
 | Execute | $5.99 | 679 91% | 20k | $122k (exactly $122,016) | Payne Robinson | |
 | MMO98 | $6.99 | 511 69% | 15k | $107k (exactly $107,157) | BiteMe Games | |
 | Family curse | older | $6.99 | 222 90% | 6.7k | $47k (exactly $46,553) | Stork Game |
 | Lower? Higher! | $9.99 | 146 67% | 4.4k | $44k (exactly $43,756) | Unplugged Studio | |
 | Immortal IDLE | · EA | $5.99 | 78 64% | 2.3k | $14k (exactly $14,017) | 伯乐Couple |
 | Trap for the Heir | $8.99 | 21 90% | 630 | $5.7k (exactly $5,664) | MariLuzaria | |
 | Beggar's Life | $2.99 | 33 60% | 990 | $3.0k (exactly $2,960) | Perennial Hearts LLC | |
 | Azure Dragon's Treasure And 999 Days of Survival | $4.99 | 17 70% | 510 | $2.5k (exactly $2,545) | Moyu Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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