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Should I ship an Alternate-History Turn-Based game?
Turn-Based + Alternate History
Only 5 developers shipped an Alternate-History Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Terra Invicta, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $190k against a market of $630. 12 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $61k (exactly $60,570) |
|---|---|
| Median | $187k (exactly $186,666) |
| Top 25% | $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) |
| Top 5% | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 5 |
| Released games | 71 |
| Announced | 12 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $29.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based
- Price point
- $29.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 198,903 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $61k. 12 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds
- + DragonsStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + SandboxFair
- + HorrorFair
- + CraftingFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + ChessFair
- + Tower DefensePoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
Comparable games
XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M 
HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M 
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV 2020 · $24M 
Terra Invicta 2026 · $11M 
Age of History II 2018 · $8.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | XCOM® 2 | older | $19.99 | 79,998 84% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,974,801) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV | older | $59.99 | 13,086 62% | 393k | $24M (exactly $23,550,874) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
| | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
| | Age of History II | older | $5.99 | 47,614 89% | 1.4M | $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) | Łukasz Jakowski |
 | Old World | older | $39.99 | 6,002 82% | 180k | $7.2M (exactly $7,200,599) | Mohawk Games |
 | Phantom Doctrine | older | $39.99 | 3,821 73% | 115k | $4.6M (exactly $4,584,054) | CreativeForge Games |
 | ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game | older | $14.99 | 9,991 84% | 300k | $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) | AtomTeam |
 | Encased: A Sci-Fi Post-Apocalyptic RPG | older | $29.99 | 4,193 77% | 126k | $3.8M (exactly $3,772,442) | Dark Crystal Games |
 | Millennia | older | $39.99 | 2,976 67% | 89k | $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) | C Prompt Games |
 | Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition | $49.99 | 2,141 68% | 64k | $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) | Oxide Games | |
 | Warnament | $12.99 | 479 84% | 14k | $187k (exactly $186,666) | Luden.io | |
 | Imperial Ambitions | $19.99 | 101 81% | 3.0k | $61k (exactly $60,570) | aoiti | |
 | Reptilian Rising | $29.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $6.3k (exactly $6,298) | Gregarious Games, Robot Circus, Hyper L… (Gregarious Games, Robot Circus, Hyper Luminal Games) |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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