Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Driving game?

Driving + Alternate History

Only 10 developers shipped an Alternate-History Driving game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Deliver At All Costs, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×458 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 20 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Driving + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Top 25% $210k (exactly $209,700)
Top 5% $288k (exactly $287,904)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 25
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 69% positive over 1,914 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HROT older $19.99 5,299 96% 159k $3.2M (exactly $3,177,810) Spytihněv
Deliver At All Costs $29.99 320 73% 9.6k $288k (exactly $287,904) Studio Far Out Games
A Bumpy Ride $14.99 569 97% 17k $256k (exactly $255,879) Cosmoporium Games
Another Try 2 · EA $6.99 1,000 53% 30k $210k (exactly $209,700) Hoki Wolf Studio
Titan Attacks! older $9.99 654 92% 20k $196k (exactly $196,004) Puppygames
NecroVisioN: Lost Company older $6.99 464 73% 14k $97k (exactly $97,301) The Farm 51
Poly Squad · EA older $4.99 316 49% 9.5k $47k (exactly $47,305) OXO Games
REPUNK older $8.99 30 60% 900 $8.1k (exactly $8,091) Almar
The Legend of Bear-Truck Trucker older $4.99 52 98% 1.6k $7.8k (exactly $7,784) Captain Games
Tear of Time: Lost memory older $3.99 18 94% 540 $2.2k (exactly $2,155) SIMPRA ORG
The Last Delivery Man On Earth $7.99 6 83% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Rebind
Midnight Shift $2.99 14 14% 420 $1.3k (exactly $1,256) Midnight Gaming Studio
Careening · EA $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Sean N Richardson
Car May Fly · EA $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) carmayflystudio
Terracrest $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Levi Spencer
Chernobots $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Sportz League
Terra Lapsa: After Ragnarök $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) PalotásForge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.