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Should I ship an Alternate-History Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Alternate History
Only 12 developers shipped an Alternate-History Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kingdom Come: Deliverance II, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $260M, ×414269 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 23 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $0 (exactly $0) |
|---|---|
| Median | $450 (exactly $450) |
| Top 25% | $55k (exactly $55,145) |
| Top 5% | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 12 |
| Released games | 41 |
| Announced | 23 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Swordplay
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 7 games average 93% positive over 147,082 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M 
Wanted: Dead 2023 · $1.2M 
LIZARDS MUST DIE 2 2025 · $669k 
Voor De Kroon 2022 · EA · $614k 
Touken Ranbu Warriors 2022 · $355k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
| | Wanted: Dead | older | $29.99 | 1,373 67% | 41k | $1.2M (exactly $1,235,288) | Soleil Ltd. |
| | LIZARDS MUST DIE 2 | $9.99 | 2,232 94% | 67k | $669k (exactly $668,930) | the Bratans, Smola Game Studio | |
| | Voor De Kroon | · EA older | $29.99 | 682 87% | 20k | $614k (exactly $613,595) | Future Minimalism |
| | Touken Ranbu Warriors | older | $59.99 | 197 87% | 5.9k | $355k (exactly $354,541) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Tales Of Glory | older | $10.99 | 1,042 80% | 31k | $344k (exactly $343,547) | BlackTale Games |
 | Fate Seeker: Journey | older | $10.00 | 1,105 77% | 33k | $332k (exactly $331,500) | JSL Entertainment |
 | Age of Gladiators II: Rome | older | $19.99 | 272 66% | 8.2k | $163k (exactly $163,118) | Creative Storm Entertainment |
 | Knights Within | · EA older | $17.99 | 250 95% | 7.5k | $135k (exactly $134,925) | Indecision Labs |
 | Pharaonic | older | $14.99 | 247 77% | 7.4k | $111k (exactly $111,076) | Milkstone Studios |
 | Ultimate Hero | $9.99 | 184 65% | 5.5k | $55k (exactly $55,145) | Fishwharf | |
 | Politon | $4.99 | 81 90% | 2.4k | $12k (exactly $12,126) | Pinq Games | |
 | Trap for the Heir | $8.99 | 21 90% | 630 | $5.7k (exactly $5,664) | MariLuzaria | |
 | DarkShine | · EA | $3.00 | 5 100% | 150 | $450 (exactly $450) | DScorp |
 | Guards vs Goats | $9.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | David Amado | |
 | ITribe | $14.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Keka | |
 | Kingdom Wars | $9.90 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Obsidiagon | |
 | Enlil: Rise Of the End | · EA | $4.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | HAPPYTECH |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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