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Should I ship an Alternate-History PvE game?
PvE + Alternate History
Of 51 developers who shipped an Alternate-History PvE game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 158 more are announced, ×6.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×440 the market median. Revenue is up 330% on the market; 158 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $270 (exactly $270) |
|---|---|
| Median | $897 (exactly $897) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $11,688) |
| Top 5% | $276k (exactly $276,462) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 51 |
| Released games | 165 |
| Announced | 158 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 330% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvE
- effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- PvE; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Strategy, Action
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 10,100 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 158 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvE with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + TypingFair
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + HeistPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + NavalPoor odds
- + SpaceshipsPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
The Outlast Trials 2024 · $109M 
XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M 
Zombie Army 4: Dead War 2021 · $15M 
SD GUNDAM BATTLE ALLIANCE 2022 · $8.8M 
Call of Duty®: Vanguard 2023 · $7.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Outlast Trials | older | $39.99 | 90,997 92% | 2.7M | $109M (exactly $109,169,101) | Red Barrels |
| | XCOM® 2 | older | $19.99 | 79,998 84% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,974,801) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Zombie Army 4: Dead War | older | $49.99 | 10,028 86% | 301k | $15M (exactly $15,038,992) | Rebellion |
| | SD GUNDAM BATTLE ALLIANCE | older | $59.99 | 4,892 62% | 147k | $8.8M (exactly $8,804,132) | ARTDINK |
| | Call of Duty®: Vanguard | older | $59.99 | 4,172 67% | 125k | $7.5M (exactly $7,508,348) | Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, High Moon… (Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, High Moon Studios, Raven Software, Beenox, Demonware) |
 | Sprocket | · EA older | $19.99 | 12,336 92% | 370k | $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) | Hamish Dunn |
 | Regiments | older | $29.99 | 2,822 87% | 85k | $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) | Bird's Eye Games |
 | KLETKA | $9.99 | 6,374 90% | 191k | $1.9M (exactly $1,910,288) | Callback, ln404 | |
 | Alisa | older | $17.99 | 1,358 89% | 41k | $733k (exactly $732,913) | Casper Croes |
 | Rise of the Triad: Ludicrous Edition | older | $19.99 | 678 93% | 20k | $407k (exactly $406,597) | Nightdive Studios, Apogee Software, New… (Nightdive Studios, Apogee Software, New Blood Interactive) |
 | Ratten Reich | $19.99 | 616 40% | 18k | $369k (exactly $369,415) | METALLADLERSTUDIO | |
 | Kvark | $19.99 | 461 86% | 14k | $276k (exactly $276,462) | Latest Past, Perun Creative | |
 | Thick As Thieves | $4.99 | 1,106 65% | 33k | $166k (exactly $165,568) | OtherSide Entertainment | |
 | C.A.S.T. (CHERNOZEM ANOMALY STRIKE TEAM) | $6.99 | 777 87% | 23k | $163k (exactly $162,937) | BRAIN DOES (NOT) WORK | |
 | Defender of the Crown: The Legend Returns | $19.99 | 216 66% | 6.5k | $130k (exactly $129,535) | Black Tower Basement | |
 | City 20 | · EA | $19.99 | 197 72% | 5.9k | $118k (exactly $118,141) | Untold Games |
 | Skopje '83 | $14.99 | 151 66% | 4.5k | $68k (exactly $67,905) | Dark-1 | |
 | Earth vs Mars | $14.99 | 74 85% | 2.2k | $33k (exactly $33,278) | Relic Entertainment | |
 | Religion inc. | $4.99 | 128 72% | 3.8k | $19k (exactly $19,162) | GameFirst |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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