Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Combat game?

Combat + Alternate History

Of 72 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 211 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×776 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 211 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 211 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $5.8k → $8.1k → $1.0k → $3.6k → $599 → $300 (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,679)
Top 5% $487k (exactly $487,305)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 223
Announced 211
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 158,536 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 211 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
BioShock Infinite older $29.99 109,718 93% 3.3M $99M (exactly $98,713,285) Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (… (Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (Linux))
Zombie Army 4: Dead War older $49.99 10,028 86% 301k $15M (exactly $15,038,992) Rebellion
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
SD GUNDAM BATTLE ALLIANCE older $59.99 4,892 62% 147k $8.8M (exactly $8,804,132) ARTDINK
REPLACED $19.99 9,130 84% 274k $5.5M (exactly $5,475,261) Sad Cat Studios
Regiments older $29.99 2,822 87% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Bird's Eye Games
Flintlock: The Siege of Dawn older $39.99 1,362 75% 41k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,991) A44 Games
Wanted: Dead older $29.99 1,373 67% 41k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,288) Soleil Ltd.
Power & Revolution 2022 Edition older $49.99 815 60% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,222,256) Eversim
'83 · EA $29.99 1,228 65% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) Blue Dot Games
Angeline Era $24.99 650 95% 20k $487k (exactly $487,305) Melos Han-Tani, Marina Kittaka, Analges… (Melos Han-Tani, Marina Kittaka, Analgesic Productions)
Ratten Reich $19.99 616 40% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) METALLADLERSTUDIO
Crimson Oath $14.99 750 82% 23k $337k (exactly $337,275) Parry Frames Team
Unknown 9: Awakening $19.99 275 55% 8.3k $165k (exactly $164,918) Reflector Entertainment Ltd.
Grit and Valor - 1949 $19.99 274 75% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Milky Tea Studios
C.A.S.T. (CHERNOZEM ANOMALY STRIKE TEAM) $6.99 777 87% 23k $163k (exactly $162,937) BRAIN DOES (NOT) WORK
Polylithic $14.99 278 71% 8.3k $125k (exactly $125,017) polyperfect

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.