Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History CRPG?

CRPG + Alternate History

Only 15 developers shipped an Alternate-History CRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Necromancer's Tale, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270. 50 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 90% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 50 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $74k → $359 → $128k → $103k → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $267 (exactly $267)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,491)
Top 5% $690k (exactly $690,474)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 65
Announced 50
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, RPG, Multiple Endings
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Dialogue Heavy, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,549 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $450, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game 2018 · $4.5M Encased: A Sci-Fi Post-Apocalyptic RPG 2021 · $3.8M 江湖十一 2023 · $2.9M Sword and Fairy Inn 2 2022 · $1.2M The Necromancer's Tale 2025 · $690k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game older $14.99 9,991 84% 300k $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) AtomTeam
Encased: A Sci-Fi Post-Apocalyptic RPG older $29.99 4,193 77% 126k $3.8M (exactly $3,772,442) Dark Crystal Games
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
Sword and Fairy Inn 2 older $19.99 2,013 49% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,207,196) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
The Necromancer's Tale $24.99 921 91% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Psychic Software
Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles · EA older $19.99 1,094 74% 33k $656k (exactly $656,072) Mauris, Tech-5 UG
Sovereign Syndicate older $19.99 573 79% 17k $344k (exactly $343,628) Crimson Herring Studios
Crisis in the Kremlin older $4.99 1,372 83% 41k $205k (exactly $205,388) Nostalgames
鸿源战纪 - Tales of Hongyuan older $12.99 442 78% 13k $172k (exactly $172,247) Hongyuan Game
Wishful Journey:Love Across Time older $9.99 426 88% 13k $128k (exactly $127,672) Hillhouse Holdings Limited
Duskpunk $19.99 171 91% 5.1k $103k (exactly $102,549) Clockwork Bird, James Patton
Time Space Rebuild $4.99 377 76% 11k $56k (exactly $56,437) INNOVATION DREAM
Three Kingdoms Part One: Battle of Zhuo County $14.99 30 60% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) JiMoYou
Trap for the Heir $8.99 21 90% 630 $5.7k (exactly $5,664) MariLuzaria
Цикл прошлого $4.99 15 86% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) IZIRID
End's Beginning · EA $8.99 5 100% 150 $1.3k (exactly $1,348) 三更梦工作室
DarkShine · EA $3.00 5 100% 150 $450 (exactly $450) DScorp
Dr. Alb's Prodigy $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Super Tiny Studios Ltd
Intermundia: Dungeons, Polygons & Magic · EA $5.99 2 50% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Trinity Team, Excaliber

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.