Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Alternate History

Of 33 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×6.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $1.9M, ×3042 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 83 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 83 announced, ×6.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $35k → $479 → $1.7k → $390 → $2.0k → $119 → $269 (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,910,288)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 83
Announced 83
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 13,630 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hell Clock 2025 · $2.1M KLETKA 2026 · $1.9M Conquest Dark 2025 · EA · $758k Multi Turret Academy 2024 · EA · $480k Nigate Tale 2024 · $407k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hell Clock $19.99 3,535 82% 106k $2.1M (exactly $2,119,940) Rogue Snail
KLETKA $9.99 6,374 90% 191k $1.9M (exactly $1,910,288) Callback, ln404
Conquest Dark · EA $9.99 2,530 89% 76k $758k (exactly $758,241) Eldritch Sword Games
Multi Turret Academy · EA older $8.99 1,778 95% 53k $480k (exactly $479,527) Yulia Games
Nigate Tale $19.99 678 67% 20k $407k (exactly $406,597) Hermit Games, 2P Games
Fate Seeker: Journey older $10.00 1,105 77% 33k $332k (exactly $331,500) JSL Entertainment
Grit and Valor - 1949 $19.99 274 75% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Milky Tea Studios
Return to abyss 重返深渊 older $4.99 949 79% 28k $142k (exactly $142,065) Wingjoy Games
Knights Within · EA older $17.99 250 95% 7.5k $135k (exactly $134,925) Indecision Labs
SEX with HITLER 2 older $9.99 402 86% 12k $120k (exactly $120,479) Adolf Games
Deadrock Redemption 2 $14.99 123 86% 3.7k $55k (exactly $55,313) Entropy Digital Entertainment
When the Light Dies $4.99 80 71% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,976) Electric Monkeys, Secret Level Studios
Chimera CUSTOM XG · EA $19.99 13 100% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Volok Games
SIGMA WAR NOTES $12.99 12 66% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Ningbo Dongshe Network Technology Co.,… (Ningbo Dongshe Network Technology Co., Ltd)
LYMBUS $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Happy Accident Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.