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Should I ship an Alternate-History Word Game?
Word Game + Alternate History
Only 19 developers shipped an Alternate-History Word Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, xiuzhen idle, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $240, ×0.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 42 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper, while revenue is down 95% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $179 (exactly $179) |
|---|---|
| Median | $240 (exactly $240) |
| Top 25% | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) |
| Top 5% | $416k (exactly $415,646) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 51 |
| Announced | 42 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Word Game
- effort 1 / 10 · high · dictionary logic and simple UI
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Word Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 2,594 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Word Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SurvivalFair
- + TacticalFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + AutomationFair
- + Choose Your Own AdventureFair
- + DetectiveFair
- + Procedural GenerationFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + NatureFair
Comparable games
风信楼 2021 · $1.2M 
Vampires' Melody 2020 · $665k 
xiuzhen idle 2025 · $416k 
懒人修仙传2 2022 · EA · $209k 
~Be a maid in the Demon World~ The Secret Café of the Demon Angel Hero. 2020 · $182k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | 风信楼 | older | $11.99 | 3,423 94% | 103k | $1.2M (exactly $1,231,253) | Pingfang Games |
| | Vampires' Melody | older | $3.99 | 5,559 97% | 167k | $665k (exactly $665,412) | AsicxArt |
| | xiuzhen idle | $5.99 | 2,313 79% | 69k | $416k (exactly $415,646) | 游戏养家工作室 | |
| | 懒人修仙传2 | · EA older | $7.99 | 873 71% | 26k | $209k (exactly $209,258) | 托更的修罗 |
| | ~Be a maid in the Demon World~ The Secret Café of the Demon Angel Hero. | older | $18.99 | 320 74% | 9.6k | $182k (exactly $182,304) | Kokutou Umeboshi |
 | Lost in Secular Love | older | $9.99 | 500 86% | 15k | $150k (exactly $149,850) | YETU GAME |
 | Neyasnoe | older | $9.99 | 439 93% | 13k | $132k (exactly $131,568) | sad3d, ИЛЬЯМАЗО |
 | Vampires' Melody 2 | older | $3.99 | 999 87% | 30k | $120k (exactly $119,580) | AsicxArt |
 | Lost:Antinomy | older | $2.99 | 1,042 88% | 31k | $93k (exactly $93,467) | IMaiIna |
 | 孟德大小姐与自爆少年THREE KINGDOM FANTASY | older | $7.99 | 307 66% | 9.2k | $74k (exactly $73,588) | 蓝铂工作室 |
 | Lower? Higher! | $9.99 | 146 67% | 4.4k | $44k (exactly $43,756) | Unplugged Studio | |
 | Songs of Life | $8.99 | 80 81% | 2.4k | $22k (exactly $21,576) | DreamStep | |
 | 幻想 · 遇见秦始皇 Fantasy Encountering Emperor Qin Shi Huang | $6.99 | 25 84% | 750 | $5.2k (exactly $5,242) | 红豆游戏 | |
 | CRYPTOBIOSIS | $9.99 | 6 50% | 180 | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) | 陈高远狠活工作室 | |
 | Idle Hero Siege | $3.99 | 14 42% | 420 | $1.7k (exactly $1,676) | 光鸽 | |
 | 我穿越回末世5天前 | · EA | $2.99 | 5 40% | 150 | $449 (exactly $449) | 浔曜 |
 | The Iron and the Oath | $6.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $419 (exactly $419) | FFire Studio | |
 | 墨缇斯：霾影季度 | $5.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $359 (exactly $359) | 青礼社Bendetizoin | |
 | 穿越日记 | $7.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $240 (exactly $240) | 娃哈哈哈 WaHa Works |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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