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Should I ship an Alternate-History FPS?
FPS + Alternate History
Of 42 developers who shipped an Alternate-History FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 108 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×738 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 108 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,797) |
| Top 25% | $18k (exactly $17,611) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 42 |
| Released games | 157 |
| Announced | 108 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- FPS
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 8,883 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 108 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
BioShock Infinite 2013 · $99M 
Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M 
Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus 2017 · $42M 
BioShock™ Remastered 2016 · $31M 
Wolfenstein: The New Order 2014 · $28M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | BioShock Infinite | older | $29.99 | 109,718 93% | 3.3M | $99M (exactly $98,713,285) | Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (… (Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (Linux)) |
| | Atomic Heart | older | $59.99 | 41,690 81% | 1.3M | $75M (exactly $75,029,493) | Mundfish |
| | Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus | older | $39.99 | 35,277 81% | 1.1M | $42M (exactly $42,321,817) | MachineGames |
| | BioShock™ Remastered | older | $19.99 | 52,500 83% | 1.6M | $31M (exactly $31,484,250) | 2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel… (2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel, Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
| | Wolfenstein: The New Order | older | $19.99 | 46,443 91% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $27,851,867) | MachineGames |
 | BioShock™ | older | $19.99 | 25,188 93% | 756k | $15M (exactly $15,105,244) | 2K Boston, 2K Australia |
 | BioShock™ 2 Remastered | older | $19.99 | 24,316 72% | 729k | $15M (exactly $14,582,305) | 2K Marin, 2K China, Digital Extremes, 2… (2K Marin, 2K China, Digital Extremes, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel, Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
 | Marauders | · EA older | $29.99 | 13,505 68% | 405k | $12M (exactly $12,150,448) | Small Impact Games |
 | Wolfenstein: The Old Blood | older | $19.99 | 18,076 90% | 542k | $11M (exactly $10,840,177) | MachineGames |
 | Call of Juarez: Gunslinger | older | $14.99 | 20,869 94% | 626k | $9.4M (exactly $9,384,789) | Techland |
 | Project Silverfish | · EA | $29.99 | 3,138 93% | 94k | $2.8M (exactly $2,823,259) | Siris Pendrake |
 | Hail to the Rainbow | $14.99 | 2,533 90% | 76k | $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) | Носков Сергей | |
 | '83 | · EA | $29.99 | 1,228 65% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) | Blue Dot Games |
 | INCISION | $14.99 | 997 85% | 30k | $448k (exactly $448,351) | SmoothBrainDev | |
 | Kvark | $19.99 | 461 86% | 14k | $276k (exactly $276,462) | Latest Past, Perun Creative | |
 | Zombie Army VR | $29.99 | 182 44% | 5.5k | $164k (exactly $163,745) | Rebellion, Xtended Realities | |
 | Skopje '83 | $14.99 | 151 66% | 4.5k | $68k (exactly $67,905) | Dark-1 | |
 | FEAR OF FAITH | · EA | $9.99 | 117 78% | 3.5k | $35k (exactly $35,065) | UNBREAKABLE ARK |
 | Irreversible | · EA | $19.99 | 41 92% | 1.2k | $25k (exactly $24,588) | Delusional Reality Studio |
 | Into The Darkness VR | · EA | $19.99 | 35 37% | 1.1k | $21k (exactly $20,990) | Cosmos Games, 9 lives |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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