Do I ship it?

GamesCard BattlerCard Battler + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Card Battler?

Card Battler + Alternate History

Only 7 developers shipped an Alternate-History Card Battler in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kumitantei: Old-School Slaughter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×20 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $9.4k against a market of $630. 40 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 15.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 40 announced, ×20 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Battler + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Card Battler + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $6.6k (exactly $6,594)
Median $9.4k (exactly $9,444)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $55,145)
Top 5% $141k (exactly $141,206)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 32
Announced 40
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 60% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 31%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Card Battler
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 1,879 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.6k, median $9.4k, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.6k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×20 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Battler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ArcadeFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  2. + Bullet HellFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  3. + GamblingFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 77 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  5. + ZombiesFair17 devs · median $839 · 22 announced
  6. + Point & ClickFair25 devs · median $629 · 34 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair35 devs · median $628 · 33 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair43 devs · median $449 · 57 announced
  9. + Party GameFair28 devs · median $449 · 35 announced
  10. + SolitaireLong shot77 devs · median $299 · 79 announced
  11. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds33 devs · median $31k · 56 announced
  12. + CRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced

All 125 pairs on the Card Battler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Unmatched: Digital Edition older $22.99 274 74% 8.2k $189k (exactly $188,978) Dire Wolf
The Political Machine 2024 older $19.99 255 74% 7.7k $153k (exactly $152,924) Stardock Entertainment
Kumitantei: Old-School Slaughter $14.99 314 90% 9.4k $141k (exactly $141,206) Mango Factory
Artist Life Simulator older $19.99 173 79% 5.2k $104k (exactly $103,748) Interactive Fate
Liberte older $19.99 152 63% 4.6k $91k (exactly $91,154) Superstatic
Fantasy of Caocao 2 older $8.99 290 83% 8.7k $78k (exactly $78,213) 桑尼游戏(Sunny Game)
Last Day of Rome older $11.99 162 49% 4.9k $58k (exactly $58,271) Hamsters
Ultimate Hero $9.99 184 65% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) Fishwharf
TeamTower · EA older $19.99 37 64% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) pink rabbit
九州风流 · EA older $17.99 38 60% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) GB
Vinecard $9.99 42 95% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,587) SiriusStudio
Millennium Strategy $14.99 21 85% 630 $9.4k (exactly $9,444) MiMo Games
The Midnight Crimes $10.99 20 60% 600 $6.6k (exactly $6,594) DeadlyCrow Games
Vox Populi: Germany 2025 $7.99 8 87% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Velsin
塔防神马都是浮云 $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 北京策马文化传媒有限公司

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.