Games › Exploration › Exploration + Alternate History
Should I ship an Alternate-History Exploration game?
Exploration + Alternate History
Of 150 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 360 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×420 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 360 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,901) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $12,126) |
| Top 5% | $264k (exactly $263,868) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 150 |
| Released games | 455 |
| Announced | 360 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 16,273 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 87 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 360 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + SpaceshipsFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + WuxiaPoor odds
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Martial ArtsPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + FMVPoor odds
- + FarmingPoor odds
Comparable games
Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M 
A Plague Tale: Requiem 2022 · $31M 
Steelrising 2022 · $6.9M 
Five Nights at Freddy's: Into the Pit 2024 · $6.1M 
ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game 2018 · $4.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Atomic Heart | older | $59.99 | 41,690 81% | 1.3M | $75M (exactly $75,029,493) | Mundfish |
| | A Plague Tale: Requiem | older | $49.99 | 20,797 90% | 624k | $31M (exactly $31,189,261) | Asobo Studio |
| | Steelrising | older | $49.99 | 4,568 73% | 137k | $6.9M (exactly $6,850,630) | Spiders |
| | Five Nights at Freddy's: Into the Pit | older | $19.99 | 10,164 95% | 305k | $6.1M (exactly $6,095,351) | Mega Cat Studios |
| | ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game | older | $14.99 | 9,991 84% | 300k | $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) | AtomTeam |
 | Encased: A Sci-Fi Post-Apocalyptic RPG | older | $29.99 | 4,193 77% | 126k | $3.8M (exactly $3,772,442) | Dark Crystal Games |
 | Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream | $39.99 | 2,451 95% | 74k | $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) | River End Games | |
 | 江湖十一 | older | $17.99 | 5,385 42% | 162k | $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) | 万象皆春 |
 | Project Silverfish | · EA | $29.99 | 3,138 93% | 94k | $2.8M (exactly $2,823,259) | Siris Pendrake |
 | Curious Expedition 2 | older | $19.99 | 3,861 88% | 116k | $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) | Maschinen-Mensch |
 | KLETKA | $9.99 | 6,374 90% | 191k | $1.9M (exactly $1,910,288) | Callback, ln404 | |
 | Surviving the Abyss | $19.99 | 1,044 64% | 31k | $626k (exactly $626,087) | Rocket Flair Studios | |
 | Angeline Era | $24.99 | 650 95% | 20k | $487k (exactly $487,305) | Melos Han-Tani, Marina Kittaka, Analges… (Melos Han-Tani, Marina Kittaka, Analgesic Productions) | |
 | INCISION | $14.99 | 997 85% | 30k | $448k (exactly $448,351) | SmoothBrainDev | |
 | Kvark | $19.99 | 461 86% | 14k | $276k (exactly $276,462) | Latest Past, Perun Creative | |
 | Go Home Annie: An SCP Game | $19.99 | 440 79% | 13k | $264k (exactly $263,868) | Misfit Village | |
 | A Bumpy Ride | $14.99 | 569 97% | 17k | $256k (exactly $255,879) | Cosmoporium Games | |
 | Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate | $49.99 | 149 62% | 4.5k | $223k (exactly $223,455) | Mighty Eyes |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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