Do I ship it?

GamesSurvival HorrorSurvival Horror + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Survival Horror?

Survival Horror + Alternate History

Of 23 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Survival Horror in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×160 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 58 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 58 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival Horror + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $1.3k → $101k → $9.6k → $719 → $2.5k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival Horror + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,155)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,688)
Top 5% $101k (exactly $100,543)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 72
Announced 58
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival Horror; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 3,866 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival Horror with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair13 devs · median $31k · 14 announced
  2. + DrivingFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + SnowFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  6. + SportsFair5 devs · median $959 · 3 announced
  7. + Outbreak SimFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterFair27 devs · median $449 · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds10 devs · median $64k · 42 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds17 devs · median $52k · 21 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced

All 159 pairs on the Survival Horror page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Outlast Trials older $39.99 90,997 92% 2.7M $109M (exactly $109,169,101) Red Barrels
FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S: HELP WANTED older $29.99 12,257 95% 368k $11M (exactly $11,027,623) Steel Wool Studios
Five Nights at Freddy's: Into the Pit older $19.99 10,164 95% 305k $6.1M (exactly $6,095,351) Mega Cat Studios
Singularity™ older $29.99 5,487 93% 165k $4.9M (exactly $4,936,654) Raven Software
FAITH: The Unholy Trinity older $14.99 8,006 95% 240k $3.6M (exactly $3,600,298) Airdorf Games
Project Silverfish · EA $29.99 3,138 93% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,823,259) Siris Pendrake
CONSCRIPT: Director’s Cut older $19.99 1,998 90% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,198,201) Jordan Mochi, Catchweight Studio
Tunguska: The Visitation - Final Cut older $14.99 1,682 87% 50k $756k (exactly $756,395) Rotorist Workshop
Alisa older $17.99 1,358 89% 41k $733k (exactly $732,913) Casper Croes
The Land of Pain older $11.99 580 77% 17k $209k (exactly $208,626) Alessandro Guzzo
The Last FARMER $12.99 258 56% 7.7k $101k (exactly $100,543) Geekon
Midnight Special $14.99 111 70% 3.3k $50k (exactly $49,917) Scared Stupid Inc
FEAR OF FAITH · EA $9.99 117 78% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,065) UNBREAKABLE ARK
When the Light Dies $4.99 80 71% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,976) Electric Monkeys, Secret Level Studios
FEED MY MECH $9.99 39 64% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) TheManiacMartian
Italian Brainrot: In Prison $4.99 64 81% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) ShLeks, Hero
PLAYTOWN: Chapter 3 $8.99 26 88% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) Cyanide TIme Games
Isolation Simulator $4.99 19 84% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) Mega Zeal Studio
BIO Fault $5.99 14 100% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) IKO Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.