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Should I ship an Alternate-History Roguelite?
Roguelite + Alternate History
Of 44 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 117 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×647 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 117 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $12,587) |
| Top 5% | $407k (exactly $406,597) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 44 |
| Released games | 103 |
| Announced | 117 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Roguelite
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Roguelite; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, RPG, Strategy
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 10,526 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 117 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Real-TimeFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TypingFair
- + Grand StrategyFair
- + IdlerFair
- + DogsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LogicFair
- + DwarvesPoor odds
Comparable games
Curious Expedition 2 2021 · $2.3M 
KLETKA 2026 · $1.9M 
Pathway 2019 · $915k 
Conquest Dark 2025 · EA · $758k 
Multi Turret Academy 2024 · EA · $480k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Curious Expedition 2 | older | $19.99 | 3,861 88% | 116k | $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) | Maschinen-Mensch |
| | KLETKA | $9.99 | 6,374 90% | 191k | $1.9M (exactly $1,910,288) | Callback, ln404 | |
| | Pathway | older | $15.99 | 1,908 76% | 57k | $915k (exactly $915,268) | Robotality |
| | Conquest Dark | · EA | $9.99 | 2,530 89% | 76k | $758k (exactly $758,241) | Eldritch Sword Games |
| | Multi Turret Academy | · EA older | $8.99 | 1,778 95% | 53k | $480k (exactly $479,527) | Yulia Games |
 | Nigate Tale | $19.99 | 678 67% | 20k | $407k (exactly $406,597) | Hermit Games, 2P Games | |
 | Fate Seeker: Journey | older | $10.00 | 1,105 77% | 33k | $332k (exactly $331,500) | JSL Entertainment |
 | Ambition: A Minuet in Power | older | $20.99 | 334 85% | 10k | $210k (exactly $210,320) | Joy Manufacturing Co. |
 | 懒人修仙传2 | · EA older | $7.99 | 873 71% | 26k | $209k (exactly $209,258) | 托更的修罗 |
 | Grit and Valor - 1949 | $19.99 | 274 75% | 8.2k | $164k (exactly $164,318) | Milky Tea Studios | |
 | Defender of the Crown: The Legend Returns | $19.99 | 216 66% | 6.5k | $130k (exactly $129,535) | Black Tower Basement | |
 | Skopje '83 | $14.99 | 151 66% | 4.5k | $68k (exactly $67,905) | Dark-1 | |
 | Ultimate Hero | $9.99 | 184 65% | 5.5k | $55k (exactly $55,145) | Fishwharf | |
 | Long Live Caesar | $9.99 | 51 78% | 1.5k | $15k (exactly $15,285) | Yury Khovansky, Vladislavs Viktorovs | |
 | NovaMundi | $12.99 | 38 81% | 1.1k | $15k (exactly $14,809) | Slashware Interactive | |
 | Three Kingdoms Part One: Battle of Zhuo County | $14.99 | 30 60% | 900 | $13k (exactly $13,491) | JiMoYou |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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