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Should I ship an Alternate-History Political Sim?
Political Sim + Alternate History
Of 49 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Political Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×436 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 85 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $419 (exactly $419) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,436) |
| Top 25% | $49k (exactly $49,492) |
| Top 5% | $274k (exactly $273,867) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 49 |
| Released games | 130 |
| Announced | 85 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Political Sim
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Political Sim; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Grand Strategy, Strategy, Simulation
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 52% positive over 50,003 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Political Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + DetectiveFair
- + Psychological HorrorFair
- + IdlerFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Board GameFair
- + TabletopFair
- + CombatPoor odds
- + Sci-fiPoor odds
- + FuturisticPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + Cold WarPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
| | Victoria 3 | older | $49.99 | 41,251 71% | 1.2M | $62M (exactly $61,864,125) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Imperator: Rome | older | $39.99 | 19,492 65% | 585k | $23M (exactly $23,384,552) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Victoria II | older | $19.99 | 16,504 92% | 495k | $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Age of History II | older | $5.99 | 47,614 89% | 1.4M | $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) | Łukasz Jakowski |
| | Not For Broadcast | older | $24.99 | 10,337 94% | 310k | $7.7M (exactly $7,749,649) | NotGames |
| | Suzerain | older | $19.99 | 10,574 92% | 317k | $6.3M (exactly $6,341,228) | Torpor Games |
| | Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator | · EA older | $6.99 | 8,904 96% | 267k | $1.9M (exactly $1,867,169) | JoySpark Games |
| | Power & Revolution 2022 Edition | older | $49.99 | 815 60% | 24k | $1.2M (exactly $1,222,256) | Eversim |
| | Fantasy Map Simulator | · EA older | $7.99 | 4,190 89% | 126k | $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) | The Stranger |
| | Age of History 2: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 2,600 83% | 78k | $779k (exactly $779,220) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
| | Solar Nations 2 | · EA | $14.99 | 609 85% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | Flomgus Games |
| | Crisis in the Kremlin: The Cold War | $7.99 | 698 80% | 21k | $167k (exactly $167,311) | Nostalgames | |
| | AfterWar | $34.99 | 139 72% | 4.2k | $146k (exactly $145,908) | Dmytro Lumen | |
| | Mr. President | $19.99 | 162 75% | 4.9k | $97k (exactly $97,151) | Exia Labs | |
| | SandTable War: Three Kingdoms | $9.99 | 301 84% | 9.0k | $90k (exactly $90,210) | 古玩工作室 | |
| | Three Kingdoms : Alias | · EA | $7.99 | 359 79% | 11k | $86k (exactly $86,052) | Plotrick |
| | For the Fatherland: Chronicle of Park Chung-hee | $14.99 | 176 88% | 5.3k | $79k (exactly $79,147) | KMS STUDIO | |
| | Maestro's Cold War 2 | $12.99 | 170 92% | 5.1k | $66k (exactly $66,249) | Maestro Cinetik |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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