Do I ship it?

GamesPolitical SimPolitical Sim + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Political Sim?

Political Sim + Alternate History

Of 49 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Political Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×436 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 85 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 85 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Political Sim + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $47k → $11k → $41k → $4.9k → $1.2k → $54k → $1.3k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Political Sim + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $49,492)
Top 5% $274k (exactly $273,867)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 130
Announced 85
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Political Sim; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Grand Strategy, Strategy, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 52% positive over 50,003 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Political Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DetectiveFair10 devs · median $9.9k · 15 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair10 devs · median $4.8k · 16 announced
  3. + IdlerFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 14 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $832 · 16 announced
  5. + Board GameFair18 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  6. + TabletopFair12 devs · median $600 · 12 announced
  7. + CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  8. + Sci-fiPoor odds24 devs · median $17k · 33 announced
  9. + FuturisticPoor odds16 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 50 announced
  11. + Cold WarPoor odds15 devs · median $9.9k · 23 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $9.6k · 83 announced

All 72 pairs on the Political Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Victoria II older $19.99 16,504 92% 495k $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) Paradox Development Studio
Age of History II older $5.99 47,614 89% 1.4M $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) Łukasz Jakowski
Not For Broadcast older $24.99 10,337 94% 310k $7.7M (exactly $7,749,649) NotGames
Suzerain older $19.99 10,574 92% 317k $6.3M (exactly $6,341,228) Torpor Games
Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator · EA older $6.99 8,904 96% 267k $1.9M (exactly $1,867,169) JoySpark Games
Power & Revolution 2022 Edition older $49.99 815 60% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,222,256) Eversim
Fantasy Map Simulator · EA older $7.99 4,190 89% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) The Stranger
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
Crisis in the Kremlin: The Cold War $7.99 698 80% 21k $167k (exactly $167,311) Nostalgames
AfterWar $34.99 139 72% 4.2k $146k (exactly $145,908) Dmytro Lumen
Mr. President $19.99 162 75% 4.9k $97k (exactly $97,151) Exia Labs
SandTable War: Three Kingdoms $9.99 301 84% 9.0k $90k (exactly $90,210) 古玩工作室
Three Kingdoms : Alias · EA $7.99 359 79% 11k $86k (exactly $86,052) Plotrick
For the Fatherland: Chronicle of Park Chung-hee $14.99 176 88% 5.3k $79k (exactly $79,147) KMS STUDIO
Maestro's Cold War 2 $12.99 170 92% 5.1k $66k (exactly $66,249) Maestro Cinetik

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.