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Should I ship an Alternate-History Stealth game?
Stealth + Alternate History
Only 19 developers shipped an Alternate-History Stealth game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×6.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×4682 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 71 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) |
| Top 25% | $35k (exactly $35,065) |
| Top 5% | $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 74 |
| Announced | 71 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Stealth
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Stealth; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Emotional
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 7,312 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + JRPGFair
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
- + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds
- + WargamePoor odds
- + DinosaursPoor odds
- + Gun CustomizationPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + Cold WarPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + MilitaryPoor odds
- + WarPoor odds
Comparable games
The Outlast Trials 2024 · $109M 
Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus 2017 · $42M 
Assassin's Creed 2 2010 · $35M 
Wolfenstein: The New Order 2014 · $28M 
Assassin's Creed® III Remastered 2019 · $18M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Outlast Trials | older | $39.99 | 90,997 92% | 2.7M | $109M (exactly $109,169,101) | Red Barrels |
| | Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus | older | $39.99 | 35,277 81% | 1.1M | $42M (exactly $42,321,817) | MachineGames |
| | Assassin's Creed 2 | older | $19.99 | 57,661 89% | 1.7M | $35M (exactly $34,579,302) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Wolfenstein: The New Order | older | $19.99 | 46,443 91% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $27,851,867) | MachineGames |
| | Assassin's Creed® III Remastered | older | $39.99 | 14,646 63% | 439k | $18M (exactly $17,570,806) | Ubisoft Entertainment |
 | Wolfenstein: The Old Blood | older | $19.99 | 18,076 90% | 542k | $11M (exactly $10,840,177) | MachineGames |
 | Phantom Doctrine | older | $39.99 | 3,821 73% | 115k | $4.6M (exactly $4,584,054) | CreativeForge Games |
 | Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream | $39.99 | 2,451 95% | 74k | $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) | River End Games | |
 | Project Silverfish | · EA | $29.99 | 3,138 93% | 94k | $2.8M (exactly $2,823,259) | Siris Pendrake |
 | Observer: System Redux | older | $29.99 | 2,462 84% | 74k | $2.2M (exactly $2,215,061) | Bloober Team, Anshar Studios |
 | Thick As Thieves | $4.99 | 1,106 65% | 33k | $166k (exactly $165,568) | OtherSide Entertainment | |
 | Unknown 9: Awakening | $19.99 | 275 55% | 8.3k | $165k (exactly $164,918) | Reflector Entertainment Ltd. | |
 | FEAR OF FAITH | · EA | $9.99 | 117 78% | 3.5k | $35k (exactly $35,065) | UNBREAKABLE ARK |
 | Into The Darkness VR | · EA | $19.99 | 35 37% | 1.1k | $21k (exactly $20,990) | Cosmos Games, 9 lives |
 | FULL METAL COFFIN | $4.99 | 137 94% | 4.1k | $21k (exactly $20,509) | Titanite, Mantle Array, Xenith | |
 | Lobotomy | $4.99 | 34 100% | 1.0k | $5.1k (exactly $5,090) | Chert | |
 | Umbra: Veins of Vengeance | $5.99 | 12 91% | 360 | $2.2k (exactly $2,156) | Leslie Phillips, QuantuMedia | |
 | Gallipoli Trenches: The Forgotten Front WW1 | $4.99 | 7 85% | 210 | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) | Fronty Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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