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Should I ship an Alternate-History Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Alternate History
Of 92 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 153 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×232 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 153 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) |
| Top 25% | $18k (exactly $17,615) |
| Top 5% | $146k (exactly $145,954) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 92 |
| Released games | 294 |
| Announced | 153 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 6,269 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 63 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 153 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
Suzerain 2020 · $6.3M 
The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth 2026 · $1.5M 
风信楼 2021 · $1.2M 
SEX with HITLER 2022 · $704k 
The Necromancer's Tale 2025 · $690k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Suzerain | older | $19.99 | 10,574 92% | 317k | $6.3M (exactly $6,341,228) | Torpor Games |
| | The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth | $19.99 | 2,564 91% | 77k | $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) | 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室 | |
| | 风信楼 | older | $11.99 | 3,423 94% | 103k | $1.2M (exactly $1,231,253) | Pingfang Games |
| | SEX with HITLER | older | $6.99 | 3,358 81% | 101k | $704k (exactly $704,173) | Adolf Games |
| | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software | |
 | Vampires' Melody | older | $3.99 | 5,559 97% | 167k | $665k (exactly $665,412) | AsicxArt |
 | Vampire Therapist | older | $14.99 | 915 93% | 27k | $411k (exactly $411,476) | Little Bat Games |
 | Sex with Stalin | older | $5.99 | 2,217 83% | 67k | $398k (exactly $398,395) | Mova Games |
 | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games | |
 | Long Gone Days | older | $24.99 | 468 88% | 14k | $351k (exactly $350,860) | This I Dreamt |
 | DAEMON MASQUERADE | $14.99 | 514 95% | 15k | $231k (exactly $231,146) | Callum Page | |
 | The Succession of Changing Kings | $9.99 | 487 86% | 15k | $146k (exactly $145,954) | KwaKwaGames | |
 | A Town Uncovered | $14.99 | 324 66% | 9.7k | $146k (exactly $145,703) | GeeSeki | |
 | Kumitantei: Old-School Slaughter | $14.99 | 314 90% | 9.4k | $141k (exactly $141,206) | Mango Factory | |
 | TK Punk Gold | $11.99 | 291 87% | 8.7k | $105k (exactly $104,673) | 桑尼游戏(Sunny Game) | |
 | The World Well: Blood of Caro | $11.99 | 205 85% | 6.2k | $74k (exactly $73,738) | Nimparth | |
 | Crown of Lust [18+] 👑 | $14.99 | 128 77% | 3.8k | $58k (exactly $57,562) | Taboo Tales 💘 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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