Games › Walking Simulator › Walking Simulator + Alternate History
Should I ship an Alternate-History Walking Simulator?
Walking Simulator + Alternate History
Of 28 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Walking Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $76k, ×122 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 53 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,797) |
| Top 25% | $10k (exactly $10,492) |
| Top 5% | $77k (exactly $76,704) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 28 |
| Released games | 108 |
| Announced | 53 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Walking Simulator
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Walking Simulator; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Puzzle
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 3,415 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Walking Simulator with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + WarFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + ThrillerFair
- + MusicFair
- + SupernaturalFair
- + Psychological HorrorFair
- + PsychologicalFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + NoirFair
Comparable games
Observer: System Redux 2020 · $2.2M 
Moons of Madness 2019 · $1.6M 
Hail to the Rainbow 2025 · $1.1M 
Hunt Down The Freeman 2018 · $1.1M 
Event[0] 2016 · $869k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Observer: System Redux | older | $29.99 | 2,462 84% | 74k | $2.2M (exactly $2,215,061) | Bloober Team, Anshar Studios |
| | Moons of Madness | older | $24.99 | 2,189 77% | 66k | $1.6M (exactly $1,641,093) | Rock Pocket Games |
| | Hail to the Rainbow | $14.99 | 2,533 90% | 76k | $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) | Носков Сергей | |
| | Hunt Down The Freeman | older | $9.99 | 3,785 54% | 114k | $1.1M (exactly $1,134,364) | Royal Rudius Entertainment |
| | Event[0] | older | $19.99 | 1,449 79% | 43k | $869k (exactly $868,965) | Ocelot Society |
 | Paradise Lost | older | $14.99 | 1,469 67% | 44k | $661k (exactly $660,609) | PolyAmorous |
 | KURSK | older | $19.99 | 445 47% | 13k | $267k (exactly $266,866) | Jujubee S.A. |
 | 7th Sector | older | $10.99 | 643 72% | 19k | $212k (exactly $211,997) | Носков Сергей |
 | The Land of Pain | older | $11.99 | 580 77% | 17k | $209k (exactly $208,626) | Alessandro Guzzo |
 | Neyasnoe | older | $9.99 | 439 93% | 13k | $132k (exactly $131,568) | sad3d, ИЛЬЯМАЗО |
 | Below, Rusted Gods | $7.99 | 320 87% | 9.6k | $77k (exactly $76,704) | FromSouthGames | |
 | Pyramids and Aliens: Escape Room | $12.99 | 191 81% | 5.7k | $74k (exactly $74,433) | mc2games | |
 | The Derailed | $6.99 | 135 82% | 4.1k | $28k (exactly $28,310) | Deformed Dreams Studio | |
 | Take Notes | $6.99 | 93 96% | 2.8k | $20k (exactly $19,502) | Stoneware Game Studio | |
 | MIRO | $14.99 | 32 100% | 960 | $14k (exactly $14,390) | Lost Saved Data_ | |
 | KARJALA | $13.99 | 25 52% | 750 | $10k (exactly $10,492) | UWEG | |
 | Dyer Expedition | $7.99 | 33 84% | 990 | $7.9k (exactly $7,910) | Monkeys With Jobs | |
 | Lobotomy | $4.99 | 34 100% | 1.0k | $5.1k (exactly $5,090) | Chert | |
 | Isolation Simulator | $4.99 | 19 84% | 570 | $2.8k (exactly $2,844) | Mega Zeal Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.