Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Stealth

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Stealth game?

Stealth

Of 1,115 developers who shipped a Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,428 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $720k, ×1152 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 2,428 games are announced against 643 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 2,428 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,115
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.9k → $2.9k → $1.3k → $1.7k → $1.3k → $1.0k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,115
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,134)
Top 25% $9.9k (exactly $9,880)
Top 5% $724k (exactly $723,605)
Developers, 2 yr 1,115
Released games 3,581
Announced 2,428
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 945,949 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $9.8k, 1 in 20 over $720k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 620 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,428 games are announced against 643 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Stealth

54 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Stealth + World War II Poor odds $43k 11 devs
  2. Stealth + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $30k 19 devs
  3. Stealth + Dinosaurs Poor odds $17k 10 devs
  4. Stealth + Cold War Poor odds $10k 7 devs
  5. Stealth + Historical Poor odds $9.6k 32 devs
  6. Stealth + Military Poor odds $8.5k 43 devs
  7. Stealth + War Poor odds $7.6k 30 devs
  8. Stealth + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $6.3k 57 devs
  9. Stealth + Underground Poor odds $4.6k 26 devs
  10. Stealth + Crime Poor odds $4.4k 78 devs
  11. Stealth + Noir Poor odds $4.2k 32 devs
  12. Stealth + Modern Poor odds $4.2k 25 devs
  13. Stealth + Female Protagonist Poor odds $3.4k 123 devs
  14. Stealth + Conspiracy Poor odds $3.4k 22 devs
  15. Stealth + Lovecraftian Poor odds $2.9k 31 devs
  16. Stealth + Heist Poor odds $2.7k 37 devs
  17. Stealth + Dystopian Poor odds $2.5k 36 devs
  18. Stealth + Aliens Poor odds $2.4k 30 devs
  19. Stealth + Futuristic Poor odds $2.2k 47 devs
  20. Stealth + Cats Poor odds $2.2k 21 devs
  21. Stealth + Supernatural Poor odds $2.1k 124 devs
  22. Stealth + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.1k 60 devs
  23. Stealth + Underwater Poor odds $1.8k 10 devs
  24. Stealth + Hacking Poor odds $1.8k 29 devs
  25. Stealth + Psychological Horror Poor odds $1.8k 412 devs
  26. Stealth + Capitalism Poor odds $1.6k 15 devs
  27. Stealth + Science Poor odds $1.5k 10 devs
  28. Stealth + Nature Poor odds $1.4k 45 devs
  29. Stealth + Horror Poor odds $1.2k 670 devs
  30. Stealth + Psychological Poor odds $1.2k 99 devs
  31. Stealth + Mystery Poor odds $1.0k 294 devs
  32. Stealth + Thriller Poor odds $1.0k 207 devs
  33. Stealth + Alternate History Poor odds $1.0k 19 devs
  34. Stealth + Space Poor odds $972 33 devs
  35. Stealth + Sci-fi Poor odds $959 147 devs
  36. Stealth + Detective Poor odds $958 70 devs
  37. Stealth + Fantasy Poor odds $899 69 devs
  38. Stealth + Magic Poor odds $898 34 devs
  39. Stealth + Robots Poor odds $898 32 devs
  40. Stealth + Zombies Poor odds $748 76 devs
  41. Stealth + Demons Poor odds $719 98 devs
  42. Stealth + Assassins Poor odds $719 53 devs
  43. Stealth + Gothic Poor odds $719 15 devs
  44. Stealth + Vampires Poor odds $719 14 devs
  45. Stealth + Cyberpunk Poor odds $599 42 devs
  46. Stealth + Ninja Poor odds $599 18 devs
  47. Stealth + Medieval Poor odds $597 38 devs
  48. Stealth + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $359 46 devs
  49. Stealth + Werewolves Poor odds $200 9 devs
  50. Stealth + Villain Protagonist Dead $203k 4 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019 · $467M Dead by Daylight 2016 · $411M Far Cry® 5 2018 · $311M Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M Dying Light 2015 · $280M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Dead by Daylight older $19.99 685,423 78% 21M $411M (exactly $411,048,173) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Far Cry® 5 older $59.99 172,897 81% 5.2M $311M (exactly $311,162,731) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev)
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition older $39.99 219,271 94% 6.6M $263M (exactly $263,059,419) Bethesda Game Studios
Assassin's Creed® Origins older $59.99 119,764 85% 3.6M $216M (exactly $215,539,271) Ubisoft Montreal
Marvel’s Spider-Man Remastered older $59.99 101,879 96% 3.1M $183M (exactly $183,351,636) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Marvel's Spider-Man 2 $59.99 33,433 83% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,169,370) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Escape the Backrooms $9.99 137,315 90% 4.1M $41M (exactly $41,153,306) Fancy Games, Blackbird Interactive
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.