Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Stealth game?

Stealth + Post-apocalyptic

Of 57 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 185 more are announced, ×7.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $32M, ×51603 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 185 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 185 announced, ×7.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.0k → $2.2k → $46k → $4.5k → $407k → $3.8k → $3.4k (still earning) → $31k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 25% $324k (exactly $323,838)
Top 5% $32M (exactly $32,406,770)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 175
Announced 185
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 423,534 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $320k, 1 in 20 over $32M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 5 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 185 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
Metro Exodus older $29.99 117,453 90% 3.5M $106M (exactly $105,672,464) 4A Games
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
A Plague Tale: Innocence older $39.99 63,166 93% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,780,250) Asobo Studio
Tom Clancy’s The Division™ older $29.99 76,985 72% 2.3M $69M (exactly $69,263,404) Massive Entertainment
DEATH STRANDING DIRECTOR'S CUT older $39.99 49,837 91% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,789,449) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS
Metro 2033 Redux older $19.99 94,968 91% 2.8M $57M (exactly $56,952,310) 4A Games
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Atomfall $49.99 4,526 76% 136k $6.8M (exactly $6,787,642) Rebellion
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Project Silverfish · EA $29.99 3,138 93% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,823,259) Siris Pendrake
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
A Quiet Place: The Road Ahead $29.99 2,331 74% 70k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,201) Stormind Games
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.