Games › Stealth › Stealth + Heist
Should I ship a Heist Stealth game?
Stealth + Heist
Of 37 developers who shipped a Heist Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 115 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2212 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 115 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $480 (exactly $480) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,698) |
| Top 25% | $62k (exactly $62,079) |
| Top 5% | $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 37 |
| Released games | 144 |
| Announced | 115 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Stealth; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Exploration
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Funny, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 21,270 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 115 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + JRPGFair
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
- + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds
- + WargamePoor odds
- + DinosaursPoor odds
- + Gun CustomizationPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + Cold WarPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + MilitaryPoor odds
- + WarPoor odds
Comparable games
Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M 
PAYDAY 2 2013 · $134M 
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition 2018 · $86M 
PAYDAY 3 2023 · $44M 
METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN 2015 · $44M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Persona 5 Royal | older | $59.99 | 91,682 96% | 2.8M | $165M (exactly $165,000,095) | ATLUS |
| | PAYDAY 2 | older | $9.99 | 445,531 89% | 13M | $134M (exactly $133,525,641) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games) |
| | Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 71,706 84% | 2.2M | $86M (exactly $86,025,688) | Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxe… (Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxes, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral interactive (Linux)) |
| | PAYDAY 3 | older | $29.99 | 49,305 45% | 1.5M | $44M (exactly $44,359,708) | Starbreeze Studios |
| | METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN | older | $19.99 | 73,137 91% | 2.2M | $44M (exactly $43,860,259) | KONAMI |
 | Dishonored 2 | older | $29.99 | 42,988 90% | 1.3M | $39M (exactly $38,676,304) | Arkane Studios |
 | Crime Scene Cleaner | older | $29.99 | 32,469 98% | 974k | $29M (exactly $29,212,359) | President Studio |
 | Thief Simulator | older | $19.99 | 37,377 88% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $22,414,987) | Noble Muffins |
 | Thief | older | $19.99 | 17,389 75% | 522k | $10M (exactly $10,428,183) | Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac) |
 | Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 | older | $19.99 | 15,133 67% | 454k | $9.1M (exactly $9,075,260) | CI Games |
 | Crime Simulator | $14.99 | 6,244 82% | 187k | $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) | CookieDev | |
 | Burglin' Gnomes | $9.99 | 4,635 83% | 139k | $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) | Fobri | |
 | The Break-In | $19.99 | 2,040 87% | 61k | $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) | jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh | |
 | The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time | $14.99 | 2,361 90% | 71k | $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) | That Fish, That Other Fish | |
 | Dark Hours | $9.99 | 3,481 81% | 104k | $1.0M (exactly $1,043,256) | Piece of Cake studios | |
 | Brush Burial: Gutter World | $9.99 | 838 93% | 25k | $251k (exactly $251,149) | Knife Demon Software | |
 | Thief VR: Legacy of Shadow | $19.99 | 340 75% | 10k | $204k (exactly $203,898) | Maze Theory | |
 | Thick As Thieves | $4.99 | 1,106 65% | 33k | $166k (exactly $165,568) | OtherSide Entertainment | |
 | Monaco 2 | $14.99 | 156 63% | 4.7k | $70k (exactly $70,153) | Pocketwatch Games | |
 | Arsene Lupin - Once a Thief | $29.99 | 69 68% | 2.1k | $62k (exactly $62,079) | Blazing Griffin |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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