Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Stealth game?

Stealth + Dystopian

Of 36 developers who shipped a Dystopian Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 121 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×3725 the market median. Revenue is up 980% on the market; 121 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 980% on the market, 121 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $66k → $1.2k → $2.7k → $599 → $4.8k → $6.3k (still earning) → $35k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,065)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,339,064)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 134
Announced 121
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 980% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 21,487 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 121 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus older $39.99 35,277 81% 1.1M $42M (exactly $42,321,817) MachineGames
Dishonored 2 older $29.99 42,988 90% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,676,304) Arkane Studios
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
Wolfenstein: The New Order older $19.99 46,443 91% 1.4M $28M (exactly $27,851,867) MachineGames
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided older $29.99 30,709 77% 921k $28M (exactly $27,628,887) Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac))
Dishonored older $9.99 67,504 97% 2.0M $20M (exactly $20,230,949) Arkane Studios
We Happy Few older $59.99 11,204 76% 336k $20M (exactly $20,163,839) Compulsion Games
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Director's Cut older $19.99 25,392 91% 762k $15M (exactly $15,227,582) Eidos Montreal
Cruelty Squad older $19.99 23,209 96% 696k $14M (exactly $13,918,437) Consumer Softproducts
Peripeteia · EA $24.99 3,120 86% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,339,064) Ninth Exodus
Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum $12.99 839 98% 25k $327k (exactly $326,958) nodayshalleraseyou
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures
BULT: Hunting simulator · EA $9.99 869 87% 26k $260k (exactly $260,439) Nordrise
PROHIBEAST $34.99 121 57% 3.6k $127k (exactly $127,014) SUPER AC
Dying Breed · EA $17.99 218 71% 6.5k $118k (exactly $117,655) Sarnayer
PARKSIDE: DECAYED SOUL MANIPULATION $13.99 178 87% 5.3k $75k (exactly $74,707) Banana Hardsoft
FEAR OF FAITH · EA $9.99 117 78% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,065) UNBREAKABLE ARK
Blood Facsimile · EA $17.99 59 98% 1.8k $32k (exactly $31,842) Rene McCarthy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.