Do I ship it?

Games › Stealth › Stealth + Cold War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cold-War Stealth game?

Stealth + Cold War

Only 7 developers shipped a Cold-War Stealth game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×883 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 31 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 31 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Cold War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $18k (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Cold War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $10k (exactly $10,067)
Top 25% $83k (exactly $82,759)
Top 5% $555k (exactly $554,722)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 40
Announced 31
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 600% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Cold War
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 50,994 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $82k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 31 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  11. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced
  12. + DrivingPoor odds18 devs · median $6.6k · 35 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER 2025 · $20M METAL GEAR SOLID V: GROUND ZEROES 2014 · $8.1M Phantom Doctrine 2018 · $4.6M METAL GEAR SOLID 3: Snake Eater - Master Collection Version 2023 · $3.2M The Bureau: XCOM Declassified 2013 · $2.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER $49.99 13,554 82% 407k $20M (exactly $20,326,934) KONAMI
METAL GEAR SOLID V: GROUND ZEROES older $19.99 13,535 84% 406k $8.1M (exactly $8,116,939) KONAMI
Phantom Doctrine older $39.99 3,821 73% 115k $4.6M (exactly $4,584,054) CreativeForge Games
METAL GEAR SOLID 3: Snake Eater - Master Collection Version older $19.99 5,403 89% 162k $3.2M (exactly $3,240,179) KONAMI
The Bureau: XCOM Declassified older $19.99 4,857 67% 146k $2.9M (exactly $2,912,743) 2K Marin
UnMetal older $19.99 2,404 94% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,441,679) @unepic_fran
Sniper Elite older $7.99 3,579 76% 107k $858k (exactly $857,886) Rebellion
Tunguska: The Visitation - Final Cut older $14.99 1,682 87% 50k $756k (exactly $756,395) Rotorist Workshop
METAL GEAR SOLID: Peace Walker - Master Collection Version $19.99 925 79% 28k $555k (exactly $554,722) KONAMI
Rogue Warrior older $4.99 1,234 66% 37k $185k (exactly $184,730) Rebellion
F-22: Air Dominance Fighter $19.99 138 91% 4.1k $83k (exactly $82,759) Digital Image Design Ltd.
METAL GEAR SOLID: MASTER COLLECTION Vol.2 $49.99 49 65% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) KONAMI
Red Tears: Angola · EA $14.99 39 84% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Arun Haines
UNSIGHT $7.99 42 50% 1.3k $10k (exactly $10,067) C51 Games
Psycho-Kin $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) FlyAway Studios
Mouspionage $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) HawtLava Games
Cold Transit · EA $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) cmlodev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.