Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Stealth game?

Stealth + Gothic

Only 15 developers shipped a Gothic Stealth game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Brush Burial: Gutter World, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×400 the market median. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 44 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 44 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $989 → $719 → $1.5k → $200 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,588)
Top 5% $251k (exactly $251,149)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 34
Announced 44
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,465 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $720, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines older $19.99 13,889 94% 417k $8.3M (exactly $8,329,233) Troika Games
Amnesia: Rebirth older $29.99 7,894 77% 237k $7.1M (exactly $7,102,232) Frictional Games
Gloomwood · EA older $19.99 7,495 95% 225k $4.5M (exactly $4,494,752) Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Be… (Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Berens, Thomas Porta)
Brush Burial: Gutter World $9.99 838 93% 25k $251k (exactly $251,149) Knife Demon Software
Blood Omen 2: Legacy of Kain older $6.99 1,087 66% 33k $228k (exactly $227,944) ·
Alder's Blood: Definitive Edition older $19.99 209 60% 6.3k $125k (exactly $125,337) Shockwork Games
BrokenLore: DON'T WATCH $8.99 427 81% 13k $115k (exactly $115,162) Serafini Productions
Winter Ember older $29.99 82 58% 2.5k $74k (exactly $73,775) Sky Machine Studios
Tales of Old: Dominus $14.99 129 47% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Hvmana Industries MMD
Silent Slayer: Vault of the Vampire $19.99 41 70% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Schell Games
Daughter of The Void · EA $9.99 15 100% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Shaybabe
EVERDARK: Undead Apocalypse $16.99 3 100% 90 $1.5k (exactly $1,529) ESDIP_GAMES, Everdark Labs
GAYA - The Mystery $8.00 6 100% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,440) Dunamis
Labyrinth : Dracula's lair $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) MyceliumGames
Shuttering $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Grimmdark
Darke: Haunting Hours $13.99 1 0% 30 $420 (exactly $420) Ualison Rodrigues

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.