Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Stealth game?

Stealth + Crime

Of 78 developers who shipped a Crime Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 165 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.4k, ×7.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×3993 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 165 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 165 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 78
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $6.8k → $40k → $5.5k → $70k → $3.2k → $8.4k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 78
Bottom 30% $594 (exactly $594)
Median $4.4k (exactly $4,410)
Top 25% $53k (exactly $52,610)
Top 5% $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373)
Developers, 2 yr 78
Released games 209
Announced 165
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Immersive Sim
Price point
$8.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.00.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 325,729 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.4k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 5 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 165 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Watch_Dogs® 2 older $49.99 95,242 82% 2.9M $143M (exactly $142,834,427) Ubisoft
PAYDAY 2 older $9.99 445,531 89% 13M $134M (exactly $133,525,641) OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games)
PAYDAY 3 older $29.99 49,305 45% 1.5M $44M (exactly $44,359,708) Starbreeze Studios
Mafia III: Definitive Edition older $29.99 41,612 57% 1.2M $37M (exactly $37,438,316) Hangar 13, Aspyr (Mac)
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13
Hitman: Absolution™ older $19.99 49,637 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $29,767,309) Io-Interactive A/S
Crime Scene Cleaner older $29.99 32,469 98% 974k $29M (exactly $29,212,359) President Studio
Gotham Knights older $59.99 15,688 68% 471k $28M (exactly $28,233,694) Warner Bros. Games Montréal, QLOC
Crime Simulator $14.99 6,244 82% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) CookieDev
Psycho Patrol R · EA $39.99 2,090 88% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) Consumer Softproducts
The Break-In $19.99 2,040 87% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh
The Wife Next Door $16.99 1,951 89% 59k $994k (exactly $994,425) 雪山雞白郎, SnowGBL
Used Cars Simulator · EA $19.99 1,147 79% 34k $688k (exactly $687,856) DreamWay Games
Dirty Business · EA $14.99 906 75% 27k $407k (exactly $407,428) Plan Dirty Games
SWAT Commander · EA $19.99 665 77% 20k $399k (exactly $398,800) Red Mountain Games, Ritual Interactive
Brush Burial: Gutter World $9.99 838 93% 25k $251k (exactly $251,149) Knife Demon Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.