Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Stealth game?

Stealth + LGBTQ+

Only 19 developers shipped an LGBTQ+ Stealth game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Marvel's Spider-Man 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $30k, ×48 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $60M, ×95811 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 30 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 48.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $535k → $51M → $600 (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $30k (exactly $30,397)
Top 25% $10M (exactly $10,287,942)
Top 5% $60M (exactly $60,169,370)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 41
Announced 30
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 180% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 99,668 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $30k, 1 in 4 over $10M, 1 in 20 over $60M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 2 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  4. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  5. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  6. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  8. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  11. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced
  12. + DrivingPoor odds18 devs · median $6.6k · 35 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dead by Daylight older $19.99 685,423 78% 21M $411M (exactly $411,048,173) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Marvel's Spider-Man 2 $59.99 33,433 83% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,169,370) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales older $49.99 39,234 93% 1.2M $59M (exactly $58,839,230) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
Far Cry® New Dawn older $39.99 32,169 75% 965k $39M (exactly $38,593,149) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Horizon Forbidden West™ Complete Edition older $59.99 20,438 87% 613k $37M (exactly $36,782,269) Guerrilla, Nixxes Software
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 $59.99 10,443 55% 313k $19M (exactly $18,794,267) The Chinese Room
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Remothered: Broken Porcelain older $29.99 667 62% 20k $600k (exactly $600,100) Stormind Games
Aphelion $29.99 303 63% 9.1k $273k (exactly $272,609) DON'T NOD
Brush Burial: Gutter World $9.99 838 93% 25k $251k (exactly $251,149) Knife Demon Software
BrokenLore: UNFOLLOW $19.99 247 73% 7.4k $148k (exactly $148,126) Serafini Productions
Monaco 2 $14.99 156 63% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) Pocketwatch Games
Human Farm : Investigation : $12.99 78 80% 2.3k $30k (exactly $30,397) とっくり海月

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.