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Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Stealth game?
Stealth + Dark Fantasy
Of 60 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 153 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×4002 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 153 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $239 (exactly $239) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.1k (exactly $2,096) |
| Top 25% | $42k (exactly $41,990) |
| Top 5% | $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 60 |
| Released games | 165 |
| Announced | 153 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.10 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Stealth
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Dark Fantasy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Stealth; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
- Price point
- $8.10 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.10.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 36,613 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 153 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + JRPGFair
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
- + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds
- + WargamePoor odds
- + DinosaursPoor odds
- + Gun CustomizationPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + Cold WarPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + MilitaryPoor odds
- + WarPoor odds
Comparable games
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019 · $467M 
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ 2017 · $132M 
A Plague Tale: Innocence 2019 · $76M 
Middle-earth™: Shadow of Mordor™ 2014 · $38M 
Vampyr 2018 · $24M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition | older | $59.99 | 259,508 95% | 7.8M | $467M (exactly $467,036,548) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ | older | $49.99 | 87,777 88% | 2.6M | $132M (exactly $131,639,167) | Monolith Productions |
| | A Plague Tale: Innocence | older | $39.99 | 63,166 93% | 1.9M | $76M (exactly $75,780,250) | Asobo Studio |
| | Middle-earth™: Shadow of Mordor™ | older | $19.99 | 63,815 92% | 1.9M | $38M (exactly $38,269,856) | Monolith Productions |
| | Vampyr | older | $39.99 | 20,081 77% | 602k | $24M (exactly $24,091,176) | DONTNOD Entertainment |
 | Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 | $59.99 | 10,443 55% | 313k | $19M (exactly $18,794,267) | The Chinese Room | |
 | Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden | older | $34.99 | 13,305 89% | 399k | $14M (exactly $13,966,258) | The Bearded Ladies |
 | Styx: Master of Shadows | older | $19.99 | 9,654 83% | 290k | $5.8M (exactly $5,789,504) | Cyanide Studio |
 | Weird West: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 3,962 77% | 119k | $4.8M (exactly $4,753,211) | WolfEye Studios |
 | Fatekeeper | · EA | $9.99 | 10,605 80% | 318k | $3.2M (exactly $3,178,318) | Paraglacial |
 | YAPYAP | $9.99 | 8,385 83% | 252k | $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984) | Maison Bap | |
 | The Midnight Walk | $29.99 | 2,682 92% | 80k | $2.4M (exactly $2,412,995) | MoonHood | |
 | Styx: Blades of Greed | $39.99 | 782 66% | 23k | $938k (exactly $938,165) | Cyanide Studio | |
 | Bye Sweet Carole | $24.99 | 1,039 72% | 31k | $779k (exactly $778,938) | Little Sewing Machine | |
 | Kristala | $39.99 | 485 71% | 15k | $582k (exactly $581,854) | Astral Clocktower Studios | |
 | The Adventures of Sir Kicksalot | $9.99 | 999 98% | 30k | $299k (exactly $299,400) | Stéphane Le Roy | |
 | Brush Burial: Gutter World | $9.99 | 838 93% | 25k | $251k (exactly $251,149) | Knife Demon Software | |
 | Caput Mortum | $11.99 | 355 94% | 11k | $128k (exactly $127,694) | WildArts Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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