Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Stealth game?

Stealth + Thriller

Of 207 developers who shipped a Thriller Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 345 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×320 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 345 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 345 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 207
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.9k → $1.8k → $2.7k → $2.1k → $899 → $898 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 207
Bottom 30% $358 (exactly $358)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $7.6k (exactly $7,635)
Top 5% $201k (exactly $200,799)
Developers, 2 yr 207
Released games 462
Announced 345
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 67,214 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 103 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 345 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Five Nights at Freddy's: Security Breach older $39.99 65,350 86% 2.0M $78M (exactly $78,400,395) Steel Wool Studios
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
Little Nightmares II older $29.99 50,280 92% 1.5M $45M (exactly $45,236,916) Tarsier Studios
Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic $39.99 10,874 86% 326k $13M (exactly $13,045,538) Steel Wool Studios
Still Wakes the Deep older $34.99 11,213 87% 336k $12M (exactly $11,770,286) The Chinese Room
Secret Neighbor: Hello Neighbor Multiplayer older $19.99 14,865 86% 446k $8.9M (exactly $8,914,540) Hologryph, Eerie Guest Studios
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
ROUTINE $24.99 7,322 91% 220k $5.5M (exactly $5,489,303) Lunar Software
Hello Neighbor 2 older $39.99 4,361 81% 131k $5.2M (exactly $5,231,892) Eerie Guest, tinyBuild
DARQ: Complete Edition older $19.99 3,575 94% 107k $2.1M (exactly $2,143,928) Unfold Games
A Quiet Place: The Road Ahead $29.99 2,331 74% 70k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,201) Stormind Games
Granny: Escape Together $9.99 1,661 79% 50k $498k (exactly $497,802) CreepyToad
Deathground · EA $14.99 877 61% 26k $394k (exactly $394,387) Jaw Drop Games
Aphelion $29.99 303 63% 9.1k $273k (exactly $272,609) DON'T NOD
Dread Flats $5.99 1,453 83% 44k $261k (exactly $261,104) Ghostcase
Junji Ito Maniac: An Infinite Gaol $11.99 629 78% 19k $226k (exactly $226,251) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.