Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Stealth game?

Stealth + Modern

Of 25 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1327 the market median. Revenue is up 240% on the market; 51 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 240% on the market, 51 announced, ×5.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $599 → $2.7k → $1.8k → $3.8k → $25k (still earning) → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,292)
Top 5% $833k (exactly $833,166)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 77
Announced 51
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 240% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 6,002 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 7 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 older $39.99 12,781 83% 383k $15M (exactly $15,333,366) CI Games
Medal of Honor™ older $19.99 7,021 82% 211k $4.2M (exactly $4,210,494) Electronic Arts
Alpha Protocol™ older $19.99 3,420 83% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,050,974) Obsidian Entertainment
The Wife Next Door $16.99 1,951 89% 59k $994k (exactly $994,425) 雪山雞白郎, SnowGBL
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
Fursan al-Aqsa: The Knights of the Al-Aqsa Mosque older $14.99 930 96% 28k $418k (exactly $418,221) Nidal Nijm Games
Platform 8 older $3.99 2,719 86% 82k $325k (exactly $325,464) KOTAKE CREATE
Obsideo · EA older $11.99 797 61% 24k $287k (exactly $286,681) Kyle's Garage
UNDERWARD $9.99 593 73% 18k $178k (exactly $177,722) INTENSE
Don't Cheat On Me older $7.99 253 46% 7.6k $61k (exactly $60,644) A Normal Monkey Studios
Libertine: King of Hearts $19.99 96 85% 2.9k $58k (exactly $57,571) Hasnotalent Media
BrokenLore: DON’T LIE $15.99 74 86% 2.2k $35k (exactly $35,498) Serafini Productions
Chasmal Fear $19.99 55 52% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) MystiveDev
Paragnosia $3.99 228 92% 6.8k $27k (exactly $27,292) Sine Coda
Paragnosia: Museum $5.99 139 87% 4.2k $25k (exactly $24,978) Sine Coda
Shadows of Soldiers $9.99 45 75% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Ghost in the Wire
クビトリドオルズ・レトリーバー: 島津怪談01 $6.99 41 92% 1.2k $8.6k (exactly $8,598) 727 Not Hound

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.