Do I ship it?

Games › Stealth › Stealth + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Stealth game?

Stealth + Historical

Of 32 developers who shipped a Historical Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 76 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.6k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $47M, ×76378 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 76 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 76 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.8k → $18k → $372k → $50k → $1.5k → $1.0k (still earning) → $9.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $9.6k (exactly $9,595)
Top 25% $372k (exactly $371,576)
Top 5% $48M (exactly $47,965,604)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 142
Announced 76
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action-Adventure, Action, Adventure
Price point
$10.00 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 112,216 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $9.6k, 1 in 4 over $370k, 1 in 20 over $47M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 76 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  11. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced
  12. + DrivingPoor odds18 devs · median $6.6k · 35 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M Assassin's Creed® Origins 2017 · $216M Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT 2024 · $116M A Plague Tale: Innocence 2019 · $76M Assassin's Creed Valhalla 2022 · $74M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Assassin's Creed® Origins older $59.99 119,764 85% 3.6M $216M (exactly $215,539,271) Ubisoft Montreal
Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT older $59.99 64,591 93% 1.9M $116M (exactly $116,244,423) Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Softwa… (Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Software)
A Plague Tale: Innocence older $39.99 63,166 93% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,780,250) Asobo Studio
Assassin's Creed Valhalla older $59.99 41,083 70% 1.2M $74M (exactly $73,937,075) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Assassin's Creed® Unity older $29.99 79,116 77% 2.4M $71M (exactly $71,180,665) Ubisoft
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun older $39.99 30,845 96% 925k $37M (exactly $37,004,746) Mimimi Games
Assassin's Creed 2 older $19.99 57,661 89% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,579,302) Ubisoft Montreal
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Assassin's Creed Mirage $49.99 11,612 76% 348k $17M (exactly $17,414,516) Ubisoft Bordeaux
Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream $39.99 2,451 95% 74k $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) River End Games
Commandos: Origins $49.99 1,844 79% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,765,447) Claymore Game Studios
63 Days $29.99 413 72% 12k $372k (exactly $371,576) Destructive Creations
The Stone of Madness $29.99 199 77% 6.0k $179k (exactly $179,040) The Game Kitchen
Silent Shark $17.99 125 98% 3.8k $67k (exactly $67,462) John Goering

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.