Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Stealth game?

Stealth + Detective

Of 70 developers who shipped a Detective Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 147 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×320 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 147 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 147 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $2.4k → $4.8k → $1.4k → $7.2k → $1.8k → $600 (still earning) → $716 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $958 (exactly $958)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,910)
Top 5% $201k (exactly $200,799)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 182
Announced 147
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 27,799 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $960, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 147 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Batman™: Arkham Knight older $19.99 111,190 92% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,680,643) Rocksteady Studios
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 62,057 96% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,215,583) Rocksteady Studios
Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 55,935 95% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,544,219) Rocksteady Studios
Batman™: Arkham Origins older $19.99 45,536 90% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,307,939) WB Games Montreal, Splash Damage
Chants of Sennaar older $19.99 30,416 98% 912k $18M (exactly $18,240,475) Rundisc
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
Murdered: Soul Suspect older $19.99 12,051 87% 362k $7.2M (exactly $7,226,985) Airtight Games
Call of Cthulhu® older $19.99 10,962 79% 329k $6.6M (exactly $6,573,911) Cyanide Studio
>observer_ older $29.99 4,030 79% 121k $3.6M (exactly $3,625,791) Bloober Team SA
Shift At Midnight $9.99 10,147 88% 304k $3.0M (exactly $3,041,056) Bun Muen
LumineNight $24.99 515 87% 15k $386k (exactly $386,096) Spickasoft
KILLER INN · EA $9.99 670 44% 20k $201k (exactly $200,799) Square Enix, Tactic Studios
HELLSEED: All Chapters $19.99 265 73% 8.0k $159k (exactly $158,920) Profenix Studio SRLS
晨昏线 $9.99 427 76% 13k $128k (exactly $127,972) Enter Games
Rina's Undercover Train Operation $13.99 286 70% 8.6k $120k (exactly $120,034) Metamorphose
BrokenLore: DON'T WATCH $8.99 427 81% 13k $115k (exactly $115,162) Serafini Productions
Kulebra and the Souls of Limbo: Closure Edition $19.99 164 99% 4.9k $98k (exactly $98,351) Galla
İblis3:Phenomena $12.99 252 56% 7.6k $98k (exactly $98,204) Bulut ULU

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.