Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Stealth game?

Stealth + Medieval

Of 38 developers who shipped a Medieval Stealth game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $3.1M, ×5061 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 96 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 96 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $861 → $3.6k → $5.5k → $2.6k → $359 → $719 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $597 (exactly $597)
Top 25% $5.5k (exactly $5,456)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,178,318)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 132
Announced 96
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 24,341 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.4k, 1 in 20 over $3.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ older $49.99 87,777 88% 2.6M $132M (exactly $131,639,167) Monolith Productions
A Plague Tale: Innocence older $39.99 63,166 93% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,780,250) Asobo Studio
Assassin's Creed Valhalla older $59.99 41,083 70% 1.2M $74M (exactly $73,937,075) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin's Creed Mirage $49.99 11,612 76% 348k $17M (exactly $17,414,516) Ubisoft Bordeaux
Assassin’s Creed® Brotherhood older $19.99 24,958 88% 749k $15M (exactly $14,967,313) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin's Creed™: Director's Cut Edition older $19.99 23,875 80% 716k $14M (exactly $14,317,837) Ubisoft Montreal
Assassin's Creed® Revelations older $19.99 19,244 83% 577k $12M (exactly $11,540,627) Ubisoft Montreal
Thief older $19.99 17,389 75% 522k $10M (exactly $10,428,183) Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac)
Fatekeeper · EA $9.99 10,605 80% 318k $3.2M (exactly $3,178,318) Paraglacial
Dark Messiah of Might & Magic older $9.99 9,331 89% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,796,501) Arkane Studios
Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon $14.99 1,397 70% 42k $628k (exactly $628,231) Art Thieves
The Stone of Madness $29.99 199 77% 6.0k $179k (exactly $179,040) The Game Kitchen
Caput Mortum $11.99 355 94% 11k $128k (exactly $127,694) WildArts Games
Jester: A Foolish Ritual $4.99 103 88% 3.1k $15k (exactly $15,419) Fire Foot Studios
Animosity $14.99 15 93% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Red River Studio
Code Alkonost: Awakening of Evil $15.99 13 84% 390 $6.2k (exactly $6,236) Alkonost Team
Dr. Plague $6.99 28 89% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) Pathiral
Medieval Delivery $12.99 14 64% 420 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) Mega Game Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.