Do I ship it?

Games › Stealth › Stealth + Underwater

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underwater Stealth game?

Stealth + Underwater

Only 10 developers shipped an Underwater Stealth game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $47M, ×76378 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 33 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 33 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Underwater
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $120 → $1.8k → $21k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Underwater: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,509)
Top 5% $48M (exactly $47,965,604)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 29
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Underwater
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 81% positive over 27,215 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $47M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + WargamePoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  6. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  7. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  9. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  10. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  11. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced 2026 · $48M Still Wakes the Deep 2024 · $12M KURSK 2018 · $267k Dangerous Waters 2006 · $159k Crash Dive 2 2021 · $84k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Still Wakes the Deep older $34.99 11,213 87% 336k $12M (exactly $11,770,286) The Chinese Room
KURSK older $19.99 445 47% 13k $267k (exactly $266,866) Jujubee S.A.
Dangerous Waters older $14.99 353 79% 11k $159k (exactly $158,744) Sonalysts
Crash Dive 2 older $11.99 233 95% 7.0k $84k (exactly $83,810) Panic Ensues Software
SAMUDRA older $12.99 73 69% 2.2k $28k (exactly $28,448) Khayalan Arts
Swirl W@tch older $14.99 54 98% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Sleeper Games
There's Nothing Down There $2.00 394 84% 12k $24k (exactly $23,640) Tim Trankle
Crash Dive older $3.99 185 91% 5.6k $22k (exactly $22,144) Panic Ensues Software
FULL METAL COFFIN $4.99 137 94% 4.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) Titanite, Mantle Array, Xenith
Super Chaos $5.99 13 92% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Anodaxia
B.o.W II VR $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Triggerfish Games
Scary Cave Diving $4.99 12 50% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Ekblad
SHARKS · EA $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Ezone PTY LTD
Star Witch $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Frozen Dungeon
Static Paradox $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Michael Richard Lannon
Iron & Ivory $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) OutReach Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.