Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports game?

Sports

Of 1,265 developers who shipped a Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,497 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 1,497 games are announced against 779 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 1,497 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,265
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.6k → $1.3k → $1.6k → $2.2k → $1.2k → $899 (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,265
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $8.8k (exactly $8,807)
Top 5% $291k (exactly $290,854)
Developers, 2 yr 1,265
Released games 5,730
Announced 1,497
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 360,927 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $960, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 797 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,497 games are announced against 779 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Sports

200 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Sports + Puzzle Platformer Poor odds $299 33 devs
  2. Sports + Bullet Time Poor odds $119 10 devs
  3. 4X + Sports Dead $44k 1 devs
  4. City Builder + Sports Dead $11k 5 devs
  5. Sports + Chess Dead $6.7k 6 devs
  6. Sports + War Dead $5.1k 4 devs
  7. Sports + Minigames Dead $4.6k 8 devs
  8. Sports + Tower Defense Dead $4.2k 8 devs
  9. Sports + Farming Sim Dead $3.9k 9 devs
  10. Sports + Sailing Dead $2.7k 11 devs
  11. Sports + Dungeon Crawler Dead $2.4k 7 devs
  12. Sports + Psychological Horror Dead $2.2k 14 devs
  13. Sports + Underwater Dead $1.8k 10 devs
  14. CRPG + Sports Dead $1.8k 8 devs
  15. Souls-like + Sports Dead $1.4k 6 devs
  16. Sports + Transportation Dead $1.4k 12 devs
  17. Sports + Wargame Dead $1.3k 6 devs
  18. Sports + Grid-Based Movement Dead $1.3k 8 devs
  19. Sports + Swordplay Dead $1.2k 9 devs
  20. Sports + Time Manipulation Dead $1.2k 5 devs
  21. Sports + Dystopian Dead $809 9 devs
  22. Sports + Science Dead $809 9 devs
  23. Snowboarding + Sports Dead $599 12 devs
  24. Sports + Cats Dead $599 11 devs
  25. Sports + Word Game Dead $539 8 devs
  26. Sports + On-Rails Shooter Dead $538 6 devs
  27. Sports + Trading Card Game Dead $479 8 devs
  28. MOBA + Sports Dead $449 6 devs
  29. Action RTS + Sports Dead $405 10 devs
  30. Sports + Aliens Dead $390 12 devs
  31. Sports + 2D Platformer Dead $300 91 devs
  32. Sports + Medieval Dead $300 20 devs
  33. Hero Shooter + Sports Dead $300 9 devs
  34. Sports + Military Dead $300 8 devs
  35. Sniper + Sports Dead $300 6 devs
  36. Sports + Music-Based Procedural Generation Dead $300 4 devs
  37. Sports + Incremental Dead $270 56 devs
  38. Sports + 3D Platformer Dead $269 128 devs
  39. Sports + Score Attack Dead $269 108 devs
  40. Sports + Point & Click Dead $240 37 devs
  41. 3D Fighter + Sports Dead $239 53 devs
  42. Sports + Runner Dead $238 67 devs
  43. Sports + Tabletop Dead $238 48 devs
  44. Arena Shooter + Sports Dead $180 39 devs
  45. Sports + Trivia Dead $178 6 devs
  46. Sports + Quick-Time Events Dead $119 25 devs
  47. Sports + Archery Dead $119 13 devs
  48. Sports + Top-Down Shooter Dead $90 13 devs
  49. Sports + God Game Dead $0 11 devs
  50. Sports + Match 3 Dead $0 7 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M Need for Speed™ Heat 2020 · $271M EA SPORTS FC™ 26 2025 · $209M Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M Need for Speed™ Unbound 2022 · $105M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Need for Speed™ Heat older $69.99 128,933 84% 3.9M $271M (exactly $270,720,620) Ghost Games
EA SPORTS FC™ 26 $69.99 99,773 50% 3.0M $209M (exactly $209,493,368) EA Canada, EA Romania
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
TEKKEN 7 older $39.99 68,063 83% 2.0M $82M (exactly $81,655,181) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Assetto Corsa older $19.99 136,067 92% 4.1M $82M (exactly $81,599,380) Kunos Simulazioni
The Crew™ 2 older $29.99 86,533 78% 2.6M $78M (exactly $77,853,740) Ivory Tower
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
Football Manager 26 $59.99 21,490 37% 645k $39M (exactly $38,675,553) Sports Interactive
F1® 25 $49.99 25,395 87% 762k $38M (exactly $38,084,882) Codemasters
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
Assetto Corsa EVO · EA $39.99 16,545 60% 496k $20M (exactly $19,849,036) KUNOS Simulazioni
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.