Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Minigames

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Minigames Sports game?

Sports + Minigames

Only 8 developers shipped a Minigames Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, UFO 50, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $4.6k against a market of $630. 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 9 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Minigames
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sports + Minigames: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $37,775)
Top 5% $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 33
Announced 9
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Minigames
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Minigames
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 15,027 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $5.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
RUMBLE · EA older $24.99 3,158 87% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,367,553) Buckethead Entertainment
Trials Evolution: Gold Edition older $19.99 2,253 74% 68k $1.4M (exactly $1,351,124) Redlynx Ltd, Ubisoft Shanghaï
pureya older $5.99 2,242 96% 67k $403k (exactly $402,887) Majorariatto
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Come on Baby! older $14.99 69 78% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) Expotato Corp.
Fort Boyard older $24.99 41 53% 1.2k $31k (exactly $30,738) Appeal Studio
Fortress Challenge : Fort Boyard older $39.99 9 88% 270 $11k (exactly $10,797) Breakfirst
Nickelodeon Extreme Tennis: Next! $29.99 11 81% 330 $9.9k (exactly $9,897) Old Skull Games
Roxy Raccoon older $9.99 26 92% 780 $7.8k (exactly $7,792) Sinomod Studios
good $7.99 19 100% 570 $4.6k (exactly $4,554) zzox
Mini Games Retro 90s $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Ewerton José Wantroba
Odania Sports Arena $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Odania GmbH
Strip Me Down: Jock $0.99 6 66% 180 $178 (exactly $178) Kipukink
Bar Darts Simulator · EA $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.