Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Sports game?

Sports + Tabletop

Of 48 developers who shipped a Tabletop Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 35 developers shipped in the last year and 46 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 46 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $538 → $2.9k → $838 → $3.4k → $30 → $898 → $270 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $238 (exactly $238)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,269)
Top 5% $174k (exactly $173,913)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 198
Announced 46
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Tabletop; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Arcade, Strategy
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 1990's, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 3,502 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
Chess Ultra older $12.99 1,832 76% 55k $714k (exactly $713,930) Ripstone
Blood Bowl: Chaos Edition (Classic) older $14.99 1,386 79% 42k $623k (exactly $623,284) Cyanide Studios
Adorables older $29.99 502 80% 15k $452k (exactly $451,649) White Rabbit
Poker Club older $19.99 506 58% 15k $303k (exactly $303,448) Ripstone
NUTMEG! A Nostalgic Deckbuilding Football Manager $24.99 378 89% 11k $283k (exactly $283,387) Sumo Digital, Sumo Digital Academy
Nine-Ball Roulette $3.99 2,159 88% 65k $258k (exactly $258,432) WaveBox Labs
Master of Chess $19.99 290 83% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) BRANE
TOUHOU GENSOU MAHJONG $34.99 109 46% 3.3k $114k (exactly $114,417) D.N.A. Softwares
Drop Pockets · EA $14.99 243 83% 7.3k $109k (exactly $109,277) Children of Madness
Racket Pinball $19.99 37 91% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) NiVision
Break Shoot $4.99 106 99% 3.2k $16k (exactly $15,868) UPTRAND
Game Pulse Payoff Pitch $49.95 9 66% 270 $13k (exactly $13,486) Fireside Experience
The Original Moorhuhn Hunt $2.99 140 97% 4.2k $13k (exactly $12,558) Higgs Games GmbH, GeekPit Studio
Moorhuhn 2 $4.99 31 96% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Higgs Games GmbH, GeekPit Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.