Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Sports game?

Sports + Dystopian

Only 9 developers shipped a Dystopian Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Le Mans Ultimate, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $810 against a market of $630. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 830% on the market, 15 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sports + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $809 (exactly $809)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,196)
Top 5% $18M (exactly $18,077,080)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 29
Announced 15
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 830% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 21,837 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $810, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $18M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
Rollerdrome older $29.99 1,486 91% 45k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,954) Roll7
STRIDE older $19.99 1,975 79% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,408) Joy Way
Pacer older $39.99 576 72% 17k $691k (exactly $691,027) R8 Games Ltd
Super Blood Hockey older $14.99 902 91% 27k $406k (exactly $405,629) Loren Lemcke
BULT: Hunting simulator · EA $9.99 869 87% 26k $260k (exactly $260,439) Nordrise
AaAaAA!!! - A Reckless Disregard for Gravity older $9.99 651 83% 20k $195k (exactly $195,105) Dejobaan Games, LLC
Vertiginous Golf older $9.99 113 62% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,866) Kinelco & Lone Elk Creative
Election Year Knockout older $9.99 79 88% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) ExceptioNULL Games
Poker Pretty Girls Battle: Texas Hold'em older $4.99 118 56% 3.5k $18k (exactly $17,665) Zoo Corporation
The Last Golfer $19.99 12 91% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) Karthik Subramanyam, Andrew Laing
Knockout 2: Wrath of the Karen · EA $19.99 7 85% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) ExceptioNULL Games
Warranty Not Included · EA $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) VRXtra
Bald Ball $3.99 5 100% 150 $598 (exactly $598) AlbertFreeman
Tired $8.99 2 100% 60 $539 (exactly $539) EXHAUST3D
HyperBlade 2050 - Dystopian Sports Manager $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Dejima Studios
Catch These Hands · EA $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) MissilexCrisis

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.