Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + On-Rails Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an On-Rails Shooter Sports game?

Sports + On-Rails Shooter

Only 6 developers shipped an On-Rails Shooter Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Whisker Squadron: Survivor, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $540 against a market of $630. 4 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 4 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + On-Rails Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sports + On-Rails Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,641)
Top 5% $291k (exactly $290,854)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 38
Announced 4
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
On-Rails Shooter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, On-Rails Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 1,480 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 4 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
New Retro Arcade: Neon older $19.99 579 78% 17k $347k (exactly $347,226) Digital Cybercherries
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Viro Move older $24.99 23 43% 690 $17k (exactly $17,243) FIT REALITY
Rocket Skates VR older $9.99 53 81% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,884) EpiXR Games UG
Reload older $4.99 95 70% 2.9k $14k (exactly $14,222) Top3Line s.r.o.
Candy Smash VR older $4.99 78 76% 2.3k $12k (exactly $11,677) Wadup Games
69 Ways to Kill a Zombie older $4.99 70 64% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,479) Wadup Games
BioCrisis older $2.99 73 93% 2.2k $6.5k (exactly $6,548) Jim
BangBang PewPew older $24.99 8 87% 240 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Molerat Digital Art Ltd.
Dynamic Shooting VR older $9.99 16 93% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Polyfun Games
Moorhuhn 2 $4.99 31 96% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Higgs Games GmbH, GeekPit Studio
Moorhuhn Winter Edition $4.99 20 90% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Higgs Games GmbH, GeekPit Studio
Voodoo Pin $2.99 6 83% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Type-B
Medieval Archer Simulator · EA $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Hard Shark Games
Bulletball $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Crosscades
Ding! Pocket It!: Rogue Simulator $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Handcrank Workshop

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.