Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Sports game?

Sports + Military

Only 8 developers shipped a Military Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tour de France 2025, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $410 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 10 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $600 → $3.0k → $1.2k
Outcomes for Sports + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $405 (exactly $405)
Top 5% $218k (exactly $218,345)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 45
Announced 10
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.50

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports
Price point
$4.50 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,298 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $400, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 10 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Aerofly FS 4 Flight Simulator older $59.99 1,400 89% 42k $2.5M (exactly $2,519,580) IPACS
Tour de France 2025 $39.99 182 77% 5.5k $218k (exactly $218,345) Cyanide Studio
Berzerk Flashback older $9.99 147 93% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,056) Berzerk Studio
The Last Hope: Trump vs Mafia - North Korea older $4.99 280 56% 8.4k $42k (exactly $41,916) new dev
Range is HOT! · EA older $29.99 39 74% 1.2k $35k (exactly $35,088) Winter Bear Studio
Boot Camp Fitness older $10.99 66 96% 2.0k $22k (exactly $21,760) Kevin Baker
Deadly Dozen older $9.99 59 72% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,682) N-Fusion Interactive
The Mythical City 4 older $49.99 10 100% 300 $15k (exactly $14,997) Gamesforgames
Reload older $4.99 95 70% 2.9k $14k (exactly $14,222) Top3Line s.r.o.
Desert Special Forces older $19.99 20 65% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) Gamesforgames
BERSERK TANK $4.50 3 66% 90 $405 (exactly $405) WU YU CHENG
SALT: Super Awesome Laser Tag $2.99 4 100% 120 $359 (exactly $359) Foxmoon Studios
Accurate Adjacent Ballistics Simulator $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) MagusForge
Night of the Witch's Invasion $0.99 1 0% 30 $30 (exactly $30) AA Mini Games Studio
Final battle in zhifudao $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) JIANGFENG
Tessera · EA $8.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) MUGI Games
SSS-FPV $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 无敌飞行员

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.