Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Sports game?

Sports + Medieval

Of 20 developers who shipped a Medieval Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 27 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 2230% on the market, 27 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $719 → $1.2k → $180 → $180 → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 5% $32k (exactly $31,987)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 54
Announced 27
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2230% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Perma Death, RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 300 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $31k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
Beast Battle Simulator older $9.99 1,234 88% 37k $370k (exactly $369,830) DOG HOGGLER
Age of Gladiators older $7.99 709 77% 21k $170k (exactly $169,947) Creative Storm Entertainment
Dungeon Golf older $16.99 79 81% 2.4k $40k (exactly $40,266) Ant Workshop Ltd
Catch Me $5.99 178 70% 5.3k $32k (exactly $31,987) Doorway Games
SPORTAL $7.99 57 94% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Sleepwalking Potatoes
Legendary Hunter VR older $9.99 38 73% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) LastnOni
Mace and Grace: action fight blood fitness arcade older $9.99 27 77% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) PlatformaVR
Arcane Golf older $2.99 56 98% 1.7k $5.0k (exactly $5,023) FromLefcourt, thatgregperkins
Chess of Mana $8.99 17 88% 510 $4.6k (exactly $4,585) Monk Monkey
Ironblood · EA $19.99 7 71% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) Jack Wilds
Prop Sumo $9.99 13 84% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Barrel Roll Games
Rough Rivals $5.99 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Constantin Roussel
Superation $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Moonsaurus Games
Bashing Brutal $7.99 5 60% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Lema Games
KOLOSS · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Breakpoint One, Simmation
Accurate Adjacent Ballistics Simulator $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) MagusForge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.