Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + 3D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 3D Platformer Sports game?

Sports + 3D Platformer

Of 128 developers who shipped a 3D Platformer Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 73 developers shipped in the last year and 136 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 136 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + 3D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 128
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $600 → $898 → $419 → $479 → $239 → $150 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + 3D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 128
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Top 5% $91k (exactly $91,289)
Developers, 2 yr 128
Released games 506
Announced 136
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, 3D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Physics, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 17,931 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $91k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 116 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rooftops & Alleys: The Parkour Game $24.99 6,638 94% 199k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,509) MLMEDIA
ScooterFlow $19.99 3,975 95% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808) UncannyKiwi Limited
Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 3 + 4 $49.99 1,554 68% 47k $2.3M (exactly $2,330,534) Iron Galaxy Studios
Skate Story $19.99 2,733 96% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,638,980) by Sam Eng
Ben and Ed older $9.99 4,592 82% 138k $1.4M (exactly $1,376,222) Sluggerfly
OlliOlli World older $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Roll7
Paddle Paddle Paddle $4.99 1,584 86% 48k $237k (exactly $237,125) Zoroarts
Goofy Gorillas older $7.99 819 93% 25k $196k (exactly $196,314) sponge
AaaaaAAaaaAAAaaAAAAaAAAAA!!! for the Awesome older $9.99 535 81% 16k $160k (exactly $160,340) Dejobaan Games, LLC, Owlchemy Labs
STRIDE: Fates older $29.99 149 51% 4.5k $134k (exactly $134,055) Joy Way
Rocket Boots Mania $14.99 229 99% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Luma Play
我的钓鱼世界 · EA $14.99 203 60% 6.1k $91k (exactly $91,289) 华幸
Glider Simulator $7.99 242 97% 7.3k $58k (exactly $58,007) HFRK.
Boat Together $4.99 364 76% 11k $54k (exactly $54,491) Beaked Games
4Wheel Challenge $3.99 409 57% 12k $49k (exactly $48,957) LJ3D STUDIOS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.