Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Bullet Time

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Time Sports game?

Sports + Bullet Time

Only 10 developers shipped a Bullet Time Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Prop Sumo, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120, ×0.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 19 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper, while revenue is down 100% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 19 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Bullet Time
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $2.2k → $505 → $0 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Bullet Time: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $119 (exactly $119)
Top 25% $505 (exactly $505)
Top 5% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 52
Announced 19
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Bullet Time
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Bullet Time
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 5 games average 89% positive over 48 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $120, 1 in 4 over $500, 1 in 20 over $3.8k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Holodance older $19.99 201 85% 6.0k $121k (exactly $120,540) narayana games UG
Retimed older $14.99 142 90% 4.3k $64k (exactly $63,857) Team Maniax
Pro Gymnast Simulator older $14.99 105 92% 3.2k $47k (exactly $47,218) Walaber Entertainment LLC
Ball-it Hell older $2.99 368 95% 11k $33k (exactly $33,010) Jamesika
Presentiment of Death older $14.99 45 71% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) XOCUS
Fishermurs older $4.99 127 67% 3.8k $19k (exactly $19,012) Reward Hunters
Combat Force older $4.99 83 46% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) Matt Sowards
subpar pool older $9.99 22 95% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) grapefrukt games
Knife To Meet You older $14.99 13 100% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Mate Magyar
Dynamic Shooting VR older $9.99 16 93% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Polyfun Games
Prop Sumo $9.99 13 84% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Barrel Roll Games
Dunk Dunk $6.99 14 92% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Badgerhammer Limited
Cut it! $0.99 17 100% 510 $505 (exactly $505) ZERO5GAMES
PongBall $1.99 2 50% 60 $119 (exactly $119) NerxStudio
Gun Shooting Range Aim Master $1.99 2 50% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Squad Cell
Dinosaur Hunting Simulator · EA $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hard Shark Games
Tennis · EA $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hard Shark Games
Space Soccer Showdown $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Brancoberto
Cyber Bike Duels $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Bashabeth Games
BiuBiu $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) GameFox

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.