Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Sports game?

Sports + Grid-Based Movement

Only 8 developers shipped a Grid-Based Movement Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, TORSO TENNIS, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.3k against a market of $630. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 11 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $0 → $1.3k
Outcomes for Sports + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $897 (exactly $897)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,319)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 5% $9.4k (exactly $9,431)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 29
Announced 11
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Grid-Based Movement
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 639 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $9.4k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dungeon Deathball older $11.99 193 95% 5.8k $69k (exactly $69,422) Matt Glanville
Ganbare! Super Strikers older $9.99 85 85% 2.6k $25k (exactly $25,474) rese
Magnytour older $14.99 22 86% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) Pandaroo Interactive
TORSO TENNIS $4.99 63 100% 1.9k $9.4k (exactly $9,431) Michael Mato
3D Hentai Chess older $1.99 81 50% 2.4k $4.8k (exactly $4,836) Flying. Stone. Production
Turn Based Boxing: Tactics - Legends Edition $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) The Slanted Room
Chef Survivor older $4.99 27 74% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) ·
THE 2048 older $0.99 94 88% 2.8k $2.8k (exactly $2,792) Thick & Thin
Samurai Chess older $1.99 31 77% 930 $1.9k (exactly $1,851) Minimol Games
3D Hentai Checkers older $1.99 29 75% 870 $1.7k (exactly $1,731) Flying. Stone. Production
Damien Crawford's Golf Experience 2024 $3.99 13 100% 390 $1.6k (exactly $1,556) Cannibal Interactive
Baduk Challenge (Go Challenge) $10.99 4 50% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) OH YU HWAN
GameSyndicates $29.99 1 100% 30 $900 (exactly $900) GameSyndicates
Baspetball $2.99 10 100% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Gray Boss
SFTP - Super Football Tactics Pro $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Sparkling Vinegar
PongBall $1.99 2 50% 60 $119 (exactly $119) NerxStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.