Do I ship it?

GamesHero ShooterHero Shooter + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Hero Shooter?

Hero Shooter + Sports

Only 9 developers shipped a Sports Hero Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, KUNKUN Defender 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 9 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $300 against a market of $1.3k. 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 19 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hero Shooter + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $4.8k → $300 → $5.1k
Outcomes for Hero Shooter + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,336)
Top 5% $44k (exactly $44,012)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 39
Announced 19
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hero Shooter
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus hero balance and content cadence
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Hero Shooter, Sports; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 396 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $44k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hero Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationLong shot31 devs · median $478 · 28 announced
  2. + Bullet HellLong shot59 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  3. + Boomer ShooterLong shot30 devs · median $210 · 21 announced
  4. + MedievalLong shot10 devs · median $150 · 12 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds20 devs · median $7.2k · 51 announced
  6. + SuperheroPoor odds6 devs · median $6.3k · 11 announced
  7. + Battle RoyalePoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 53 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds27 devs · median $2.3k · 127 announced
  10. + PlatformerPoor odds21 devs · median $2.2k · 33 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds25 devs · median $2.1k · 68 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds27 devs · median $1.6k · 34 announced

All 87 pairs on the Hero Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monday Night Combat older $4.99 912 81% 27k $137k (exactly $136,526) Uber Entertainment
KUNKUN Defender 2 $4.99 294 94% 8.8k $44k (exactly $44,012) Seal
Desperate Vlad older $14.99 73 84% 2.2k $33k (exactly $32,828) MIROWIN
Federation77 older $9.99 96 78% 2.9k $29k (exactly $28,771) MIROWIN
Desert Special Forces older $19.99 20 65% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) Gamesforgames
The Mythical City older $9.99 38 60% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) Gamesforgames
Slot Shots Pinball Collection older $9.99 24 95% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Pinblend Studios
Defense high older $4.99 42 71% 1.3k $6.3k (exactly $6,287) TowerSergi
Just Skill Shooter 4 $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Just Skill Shooter: Catacombs $9.99 17 64% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Survalker $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
MEMOLOGY: ITALIAN MEME WAR $0.99 45 97% 1.4k $1.3k (exactly $1,336) Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm
Vector Strike · EA $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Chamo Games [RIP], Zayra, Gio, Feedbear
Accurate Adjacent Ballistics Simulator $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) MagusForge
Bomberball $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Texaur Digital
ESTRELLAS MECANICAS - La gran chispa Tournament $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) SkullBomb Entertainment
Tower Defense: Goblin Wars $0.99 4 25% 120 $119 (exactly $119) Yusuf Islam Seyhan, Samet Acar

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.