Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Archery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Archery Sports game?

Sports + Archery

Only 13 developers shipped an Archery Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dorts : A Darts Roguelike, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $120 against a market of $630. 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 14 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Archery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $29k → $1.3k → $0 → $540 → $6.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Archery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $119 (exactly $119)
Top 25% $540 (exactly $540)
Top 5% $6.2k (exactly $6,203)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 64
Announced 14
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 75% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Archery
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Archery
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 84% positive over 38 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $120, 1 in 4 over $540, 1 in 20 over $6.2k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
Holopoint older $10.99 686 89% 21k $226k (exactly $226,174) Alzan Studios, LLC
VR SUPER SPORTS older $12.99 115 56% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) SAT-BOX
Survivor - Castaway Island older $24.99 53 37% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Magic Pockets
Nock older $19.99 49 87% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) Normal
Presentiment of Death older $14.99 45 71% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) XOCUS
Cricket Through the Ages older $7.99 70 91% 2.1k $17k (exactly $16,779) Free Lives
Super Space Pug older $1.99 185 55% 5.6k $11k (exactly $11,044) Digital Dawn Studios
Probably Archery older $2.99 119 48% 3.6k $11k (exactly $10,674) South East Games
Hunting Unlimited 1 older $9.99 32 81% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) SCS Software
Dorts : A Darts Roguelike $8.99 23 100% 690 $6.2k (exactly $6,203) MovingPixels
Accolade Sports Collection (QUByte Classics) $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) QUByte Interactive
Bow Course - Archery Golf · EA $11.99 2 50% 60 $719 (exactly $719) Korpi Games Oy
Cosmic Star Lounge $17.99 1 100% 30 $540 (exactly $540) Bax Digital GmbH
Smoots Summer Games II $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Kaneda Games
Accurate Adjacent Ballistics Simulator $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) MagusForge
Medieval Archer Simulator · EA $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Hard Shark Games
Tower Defense: Goblin Wars $0.99 4 25% 120 $119 (exactly $119) Yusuf Islam Seyhan, Samet Acar
magic ball $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) AA Mini Games Studio
BraceUp VR $16.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Virtual Software House

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.