Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Sports game?

Sports + Incremental

Of 56 developers who shipped an Incremental Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $390 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 34 developers shipped in the last year and 38 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 440% on the market, 38 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 56
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $598 → $30 → $2.0k → $386 → $119 → $90 → $238 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 56
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $270 (exactly $270)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,269)
Top 5% $24k (exactly $23,730)
Developers, 2 yr 56
Released games 184
Announced 38
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Incremental; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Idler, Adventure
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 949 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $270, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $23k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Adorables older $29.99 502 80% 15k $452k (exactly $451,649) White Rabbit
Russian Life Simulator older $0.99 7,156 88% 215k $213k (exactly $212,533) GosDev Production
Iron Carnage $39.99 91 91% 2.7k $109k (exactly $109,173) Andrew Monteiro B
OnlyFap: Fitness Baby 🔞💦 older $6.99 211 62% 6.3k $44k (exactly $44,247) BanzaiProject
Sex Gym 3D older $9.99 118 47% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,365) Pirates Of The Digital Sea
Desktop Fishing $3.49 333 91% 10k $35k (exactly $34,865) Ostend Games
3D Math - Ultra older $4.99 218 92% 6.5k $33k (exactly $32,635) Big Mind Games 9000
Wonderputt Forever older $9.99 108 84% 3.2k $32k (exactly $32,368) Damp Gnat
Sexercise Club $7.99 99 77% 3.0k $24k (exactly $23,730) Dreamers Workshop
Score a goal (Physical football) older $2.99 247 66% 7.4k $22k (exactly $22,156) BulatHard
Goal Idle · EA $6.99 101 74% 3.0k $21k (exactly $21,180) Royue Games
Lazy Kickers $2.99 85 90% 2.6k $7.6k (exactly $7,625) Sos Sosowski
Moorhuhn 2 $4.99 31 96% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Higgs Games GmbH, GeekPit Studio
MEMOLOGY: ITALIAN BRAINROT $0.99 148 91% 4.4k $4.4k (exactly $4,396) hannibalnotdead, Gamesforfarm
Coastal Summit Sports: College Athletics 27 $9.99 12 25% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Coastal Summit Sports
Swish Ball Clicker $7.99 15 53% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Broad Street Indie Games
Gold ’n Goal $2.99 34 55% 1.0k $3.1k (exactly $3,050) Frog Hammer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.