Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Puzzle Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Platformer Sports game?

Sports + Puzzle Platformer

Of 33 developers who shipped a Puzzle Platformer Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. Revenue is down 45% on the market, with 21 games announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Puzzle Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.4k → $1.9k → $1.4k → $16k → $624 → $299 (still earning) → $119 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Puzzle Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $26,820)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 120
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Puzzle Platformer; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Platformer, Action, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Family Friendly, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 600 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $26k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wordle older $30.62 1,147 80% 34k $1.1M (exactly $1,053,634) PreoNus Games
Wordle 3 older $30.62 610 78% 18k $560k (exactly $560,346) PreoNus Games
Wordle 2 older $30.62 394 61% 12k $362k (exactly $361,928) PreoNus Games
OVERPASS™ older $29.99 104 51% 3.1k $94k (exactly $93,569) Zordix Racing
Jet Kave Adventure older $14.99 122 85% 3.7k $55k (exactly $54,863) 7Levels
Mind Spheres older $4.99 309 83% 9.3k $46k (exactly $46,257) Microblast Games
No Fair Play older $2.99 452 90% 14k $41k (exactly $40,544) Self MADev
FALL GIRLS older $6.99 187 49% 5.6k $39k (exactly $39,214) Squid Developer
Galumb $7.99 148 28% 4.4k $35k (exactly $35,476) OB
Perfect Partner older $8.99 107 79% 3.2k $29k (exactly $28,858) RD Studio
Stardust Skate $2.99 299 98% 9.0k $27k (exactly $26,820) VchiBan, Aetha
Seafrog $14.99 35 100% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) OhMyMe Games
Skullbreaker $29.99 13 92% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Sharkgame
Balling Up $3.99 39 79% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) RedKar Devs
Hamster Ballers $3.99 30 73% 900 $3.6k (exactly $3,591) SCH Games, Weird Dog Games
Neon Sunset $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Gamesforgames
Nickelodeon Splat Pack $14.99 6 83% 180 $2.7k (exactly $2,698) Mighty Rabbit Studios
Cyber Volley $4.99 13 100% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Helixtar Games
Muscle Ninja VR $7.99 6 100% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Marudice

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.