Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Swordplay

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Swordplay Sports game?

Sports + Swordplay

Only 9 developers shipped a Swordplay Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fresh Tracks, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 0 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.2k against a market of $630. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 11 announced, ×11 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Swordplay
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $2.2k → $1.2k
Outcomes for Sports + Swordplay: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 5% $40k (exactly $39,734)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 41
Announced 11
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: too few recent games to read.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Swordplay
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 78,348 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $39k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 0 developers who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Beat Saber older $19.99 69,750 95% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,829,075) Beat Games
Nidhogg older $9.99 5,717 90% 172k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,385) Messhof
Synth Riders older $24.99 1,336 92% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Kluge Interactive
Fruit Ninja VR older $14.99 801 80% 24k $360k (exactly $360,210) Halfbrick Studios Pty Ltd
Age of Gladiators II: Rome older $19.99 272 66% 8.2k $163k (exactly $163,118) Creative Storm Entertainment
Sword Master VR older $9.99 190 70% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,943) Master Indie
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
SWORDY · EA older $14.99 88 63% 2.6k $40k (exactly $39,574) Frogshark
SOUNDART older $19.99 57 75% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) MercuryStudio
Age of Gladiators II: Death League older $12.99 84 71% 2.5k $33k (exactly $32,735) Creative Storm Entertainment
Sportvida CyberDash $19.99 7 85% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) ible Sportvida
SLOWLY FIGHTER $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Bakumatsu Games
TrainingTiles $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) HumanBionics, Jhohan Hernandez
Bashing Brutal $7.99 5 60% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Lema Games
Project: KNOSSOS $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Ancient Pixel
Odania Sports Arena $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Odania GmbH
Accurate Adjacent Ballistics Simulator $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) MagusForge
KrvVR $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Kaan Özgül

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.