Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Sports

Of 53 developers who shipped a Sports 3D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 79 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 30 developers shipped in the last year and 79 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 79 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $300 → $1.5k → $1.2k → $1.6k → $239 → $59 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,308)
Top 5% $109k (exactly $108,864)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 220
Announced 79
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Sports; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Boxing, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 62% positive over 26,018 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 79 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TEKKEN 7 older $39.99 68,063 83% 2.0M $82M (exactly $81,655,181) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
WWE 2K26 $69.99 2,310 56% 69k $4.9M (exactly $4,850,307) Visual Concepts
RUMBLE · EA older $24.99 3,158 87% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,367,553) Buckethead Entertainment
Wrestling Empire older $19.99 3,036 94% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,689) MDickie
AEW: Fight Forever older $39.99 1,343 59% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,611,197) YUKE'S
The Thrill of the Fight - VR Boxing older $9.99 3,973 95% 119k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,708) Halfbrick Studios Pty Ltd
Gym Simulator 24 older $12.99 2,531 84% 76k $986k (exactly $986,331) Red Axe Games
Fight Crab older $19.99 747 94% 22k $448k (exactly $447,976) Calappa Games
LES MILLS XR BODYCOMBAT $29.99 121 85% 3.6k $109k (exactly $108,864) Odders Lab
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Boxing Simulator $7.99 79 79% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Inogames
Backyard Boxing $7.99 49 48% 1.5k $12k (exactly $11,745) Crime House Games, TheShadeGameDev
Real Boxing 2: Remastered $9.99 18 38% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Vivid Games S.A.
STREET TYPER X · EA $2.99 46 69% 1.4k $4.1k (exactly $4,126) STAPgames
Prop Sumo $9.99 13 84% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Barrel Roll Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.