Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + 2D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 2D Platformer Sports game?

Sports + 2D Platformer

Of 91 developers who shipped a 2D Platformer Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 49 developers shipped in the last year and 55 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 55 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + 2D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 91
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $539 → $0 → $2.2k → $210 → $624 → $300 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + 2D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 91
Bottom 30% $75 (exactly $75)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Top 5% $18k (exactly $18,438)
Developers, 2 yr 91
Released games 287
Announced 55
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
2D Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, 2D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 8,038 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $75, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $18k.

3 in 10 developers made under $75. 9 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
OlliOlli World older $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Roll7
Adorables older $29.99 502 80% 15k $452k (exactly $451,649) White Rabbit
pureya older $5.99 2,242 96% 67k $403k (exactly $402,887) Majorariatto
Fishing Adventure older $4.99 1,479 85% 44k $221k (exactly $221,406) MasterCode
SpeedRunners 2: King of Speed $9.99 447 55% 13k $134k (exactly $133,966) Fair Play Labs
HerrAnwalt: Lawyers Legacy · EA older $5.99 471 78% 14k $85k (exactly $84,639) Yannick
NEOGEO POCKET COLOR SELECTION Vol. 1 Steam Edition older $39.99 55 90% 1.7k $66k (exactly $65,984) SNK CORPORATION, Code Mystics
Bat Boy older $14.99 146 94% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) X PLUS Co., Ltd., Sonzai Games
League Manager 2023 older $14.99 144 42% 4.3k $65k (exactly $64,757) AG SOFT
Pro Wrestler Story $8.99 109 49% 3.3k $29k (exactly $29,397) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Super Technos World: River City & Technos Arcade Classics $29.99 31 54% 930 $28k (exactly $27,891) INTENSE
Skating Rink Story $12.99 66 89% 2.0k $26k (exactly $25,720) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
The Amazing Crackpots Club! $14.99 41 95% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Astrobard Games, IguanaBee
Seafrog $14.99 35 100% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) OhMyMe Games
Splash Shot Golf Legend $19.99 22 54% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) TANUKIHOUSE
The Original Moorhuhn Hunt $2.99 140 97% 4.2k $13k (exactly $12,558) Higgs Games GmbH, GeekPit Studio
Skullbreaker $29.99 13 92% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Sharkgame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.